Ostracism seems to be the safest future for the Damascus despot. Why he chose Moscow over Tehran
On a night without witnesses and with the clock running against them, the man who governed for more than two decades Syria He was taken from his land without even a farewell. Bashar al-Assad, the dictator whose regime scarred the country with a devastating civil conflict, left Damascus on a plane whose transponder was intentionally turned off to avoid being monitored. The operation was so secretive that, according to sources, not even Maher Al-Assad, brother of the despot, knew about the plan.
Rebels arriving from northern Syria surrounded the capital, and the fate of the heir to the throne Assad clan seemed to be lying down. It was then that Russia, his most powerful ally, intervened for the last time: Not to rescue his government, but to ensure its survival.
The relationship between Russia y Syria has deep roots, planted during the mandate of Hafez Al-Assad, father of Bashar, who consolidated the alliance with Moscow in the 2015s under the Soviet umbrella. This link intensified in XNUMX, when the Russian military intervention tipped the balance of the civil war in favour of the Assad.
However, the history of cooperation was marked by mistrust. For the Kremlin, Bashar was a difficult ally, reluctant to implement even the most symbolic reforms. Despite this, Vladimir Putin refused to abandon him. Memories of the brutal execution of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011 during the Arab Spring left a lasting impression on Moscow. "Putin was not going to allow Assad to suffer the same fate"a former Russian diplomat confessed to the newspaper The Guardian.
The fall of Al Assad makes him the last member of a select group of exiles who found refuge under the wing of Putin. Your destiny in Moscow seems sealed: a life of anonymity, away from the cameras and under strict surveillance. Compared to the former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych, who lives in an opulent Moscow suburb after being overthrown in 2014, Assad He will not enjoy the luxury of the limelight. The shadow of his regime, accused of crimes against humanity, condemns him to political and media ostracism.
Meanwhile, the silence of Russia on its guest is deafening. Images of Syrian rebels exploring the mansions of Al Assad, replete with sports cars and designer bags, are a visual reminder of their downfall. In contrast, Moscow He has been careful not to show the former leader in public, as if hiding him were key to erasing the trace of his support for a dictator whose defeat is presented as a personal failure of Putin.
However, there is one question that remains floating: what will be the legacy of Bashar al-Assad in a Russia who took him in out of necessity rather than loyalty?
The future of Bashar al-Assad seems condemned to invisibility. In Moscow, where he has found refuge under the protection of Putin, the former Syrian leader will face an existence marked by isolation. There will be no cameras, no public statements, no opulence on display. Awaiting him is a life carefully designed to keep him off the radar, constantly monitored by the Russian security services. For many, this is the inevitable end of a political career that combined ruthless authoritarianism with strategic incompetence that eventually sidelined him from power.
"The Assad regime was not only brutal; it was also incapable of evolving", commented analysts after his fall. For years, international pressure and recommendations from his allies to introduce minimal concessions towards the opposition were ignored. Even Russia, his staunchest supporter, watched in frustration as the Syrian leader rejected any change that could stabilise the country without compromising his absolute control.
Lessons from other deposed leaders appear to have influenced the decision of Putin to ensure the safety of Al AssadIn a calculated gesture, the Kremlin secured his evacuation to prevent him from being captured or executed by rebel forces, a fate that would have further eroded the already fragile image of Russia on the international stage.
However, this act of “hospitality” does not mean sympathy. Unlike other exiles who share the Moscow space, such as Edward Snowden or the same Yanukovych, Al Assad He will not be paraded around as a political trophy. Rather, he will be relegated to a life of political irrelevance, with his story written outside the official Russian narrative.
Russia, whose Putin faces an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court, making it a safe haven less vulnerable to pressure or incentives to hand over its host to authorities seeking to prosecute him. David Lesch, expert in Syria at Trinity University en Texas, this factor is key to Al Assad, who trusts that Moscow y Putin can better protect their families from any extradition attempts or legal action by the international community.
Lesch He also pointed out The Guardian that Russia probably offers superior medical care for Asma Al-Assad, the wife of Bashar, diagnosed with leukemia May. Asthma, born and raised in the United Kingdom, has been accused of using her British upbringing and Western ways to cover up the brutality of her husband's crackdown on dissent.
By opting for Moscow as a refuge, Al Assad chose a familiar location that not only aligns with his lavish living habits, but also offers relative geopolitical stability. According to Lesch, "Bashar and his family are avowedly secular, although they identify with the Alawite sect, so Russia has always had more appeal than Iran in that regard.".
As a pariah on the global stage, the travel options of Al Assad were limited from the start. Its two main allies, Russia e Iran, were the obvious refuges, and the choice of Moscow underlines the priorities of the Syrian president.
I hope that the time will come when the genocidal tyrant of the Ukrainian people will disappear, and then the Syrian tyrant can be extradited to be tried in his country. I do not believe that he should die in peace, but rather as he caused thousands of Syrians to die. For now, the Russian tyrant is complicit in what Al-Assad did.