Russian bombing of telecommunications antennas in kyiv, March 1, 2022. Photo: Wikipedia – CC BY 4.0
The foreseeable arrival of Trump to the White House, the failure of the Ukrainian offensive and the new Russian advances on the battlefield have brought Ukraine to its most critical point since the conflict began, in February 2022.
We are in a new phase of the conflict and its end points to the Korean-style partition of Ukraine. Then, the Gaza crisis has taken Ukraine out of the international spotlight and Western foreign ministries are beginning to tire of a war that has already lasted too long.
by Ricardo Angoso
While the end of the Ukrainian offensive without results is a fact confirmed on the ground, Russian forces have gone from a defensive to an offensive position. The latest report from the Institute Study of War (ISW), an American think tank that has followed the conflict since its beginning, assures that Russian forces are making advances “near Avdiivka and in the western oblast of Zaporiya in the midst of continuous positional clashes along along the entire front line.”
The ISW also notes that Russian forces “appear to have built a 30-kilometer-long barrier called the 'tsar train' in occupied Donetsk Oblast, possibly to serve as a defensive line against future Ukrainian attacks.” The war is clearly stagnant and has become a classic war of attrition, in which Russia tries to tire its adversary, break its forces by causing numerous casualties and using enormous human and material means to achieve small advances on the battlefield.
Russian advances continue in dribs and drabs, while Ukrainian forces have barely taken territory from their enemies, and military aid from abroad has stopped, despite the fact that the North American Senate finally approved a package of 45.000 billion dollars in the absence of confirmation from the same by the House of Representatives. The division regarding aid to Ukraine on the American side, specifically among the Republicans, has been noticeable for some time.
TRUMP ENTER THE SCENE
Then, Ukraine has very few months left to change the course of the war, since the foreseeable victory of former President Donald Trump in the next North American elections, to be held in November, can definitively change the course of the war and, collaterally, could mean the end of North American aid, which could cause a “cascade” phenomenon of Western abandonment of the Ukrainian cause, as occurred in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of United States forces in that country, which was followed by the withdrawal immediate withdrawal of all Western military contingents from Afghan soil. After the departure of the North American troops, chaos and tragedy took over that country, and the Afghan administration installed by the Westerners fell in just days like a house of cards.
Former US President Donald Trump has expressed his opinion on the war between Ukraine and Russia on the campaign trail, urging an end to the conflict and reiterating his skepticism towards sending more aid abroad as the US Senate considered a emergency funding package for Ukraine and Israel, which was finally, as already said, approved.
During a campaign rally in the city of Conway, South Carolina, Trump, who is considered the Republican favorite for the 2024 presidential nomination, referred to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as “the greatest salesman in history” for having obtained huge amounts of money for his cause without having made progress in the military field against Russia. Trump has already said that he will resolve the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in “twenty-four hours” and no one can guess how, given his closeness to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Surely, he would force Ukraine to give in to Moscow and almost surrender.
Like other Western leaders, Trump thinks Ukraine will have to make territorial concessions to reach a peace deal with Russia, something they don't even want to hear about in kyiv. Russia occupies 18% of Ukrainian territory and, if the current Russian conquests are confirmed, almost five departments (provinces) would remain in its hands, a complete defeat for Ukraine.
Apart from the serious consequences that negotiating under peremptory conditions of inferiority vis-à-vis Russia imposed by the United States may have for Ukraine, Trump has also threatened to abandon those European partners that are attacked by the Russians and that do not comply with their spending obligations. military within NATO, disdaining Article V of the Washington Treaty that invokes mutual defense among all members of the Atlantic Alliance. An abandonment of NATO, which the former president always openly despised, is not a discarded scenario, since Trump has never looked favorably on his European partners and allies, whom he always blamed for their low endowments and expenses. in defense matters. Not to mention the European Union (EU), whose values and principles constitute what Trump hates and detests most in politics.
IS IT TIME TO TALK TO RUSSIA?
For the Ukrainian president, Volodimir Zelesnki, the West has only given military aid to resist Ukraine, but not to win a war, since military supplies have been insufficient to develop a true offensive against Russian positions in the occupied territories. The war that began in 2014, in which Russia occupied Crimea and encouraged the secession of Donetsk and Lugansk, continued in the attack on Ukraine in February 2022 without the West having perceived in time the real danger posed by Russian aggression. . Now, the war is stagnant and there are no political and diplomatic solutions to the conflict in the short term.
Despite everything, Russia seems to have lately adopted a more conciliatory tone and has toned down its threats, at least in terms of rhetorical tone. Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated that he has no territorial ambitions in Europe and that he has no intention of sending troops to other countries during an interview with Tucker Carlson, former Fox News host. Putin stressed that any territorial claim in Europe is completely excluded and that it makes no sense to enter a global war that would put humanity on the brink of destruction. Putin stressed that he would only send troops against other countries in case Russia is attacked from them, and emphasized that Moscow has no interest in Poland, Latvia or anywhere else, acting only in response to real threats.
Putin also dismissed claims of a Russian threat as inflated by certain Western countries as a meaningless farce. At this point, we would have to ask ourselves if it is time to talk to Russia and, perhaps, Ukraine would have to be willing to open negotiations, even knowing that the risk of losing territories is a latent threat, but it could be the least bad solution. in current conditions. At this point, it is time to take a more constructive and pragmatic approach to this war, both on the part of Ukraine and the West, and assume once and for all that Russia will not be defeated on the battlefield. Pretending a total Russian defeat, as Zelensky intends, is confusing reality with desire and can lead to an endless war of uncertain results for the Ukrainians.
Source used and consulted:
https://www.ecoavant.com/actualidad/mapa-de-la-guerra-en-ucrania-a-12-febrero-2024_12965_102.html