Strengthening US forces in the region: implications

By EIdad Shavit and Chuck Freilich

Following threats from Iran and Hezbollah to respond to the eliminations of Hezbollah leader Fuad Shukr in Beirut and the leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran; The US Administration decided to significantly increase its forces in the region, including the additional deployment of aircraft carriers, ships and pilots.

All Administration spokespeople have emphasized that the purpose of the forces is to deter Iran and protect Israel, similar to the actions taken the night before the April 14 Iranian attack.

The Administration emphasized that it is not seeking escalation and that it maintains its position, as stressed in all of its conversations with Israel (including those of President [Joe] Biden and Defense Minister [Lloyd] Austin), that only an agreement to free the hostages will begin a process of detente, including between Israel and Hezbollah.

Indeed, the substantial force build-up is perceived to be aimed at deterring and protecting Israel primarily from an Iranian attack.

However, the impression is that it arises from concern that, without American protection, Israel would suffer a severe blow that would force it to respond.

In such a scenario, the likelihood that the United States would need to expand its involvement would increase significantly, possibly to the point of a direct response against Iran.

Therefore, assuming that Tehran is not deterred, it appears that the massive military deployment is aimed at minimizing as much as possible the risk that Iran will stage a coup that forces Israel to respond harshly and puts the United States in a dilemma over how to act.

From a US perspective, if the Iranian response is thwarted (similar to the mid-April attack), Israel would refrain from responding and the incident could be contained.

Although the Administration is committed, as it was before, to helping Israel; All reports indicate that anger and frustration with Israel's conduct is increasing.

However, at this stage, the Biden Administration is not holding Israel responsible for delaying the deal.

However, many leaks, likely coming from the Administration, including the alleged telephone conversation with President Biden, leave no doubt that the Administration also holds Prime Minister [Benjamin] Netanyahu responsible.

The Administration is caught in a dilemma over its ability to respond to Israel due to the US election campaign, but the collapse of the strategic plan to end the war, personally led by President Biden, has left the Administration with no alternative, and The blame is likely to fall squarely on Israel, especially if the Administration is dragged into expanding its military involvement in Middle East, unintentionally, in the final stretch of the tumultuous electoral campaign, whose results will probably be affected by events in the region.

Source: INSS – The Institute for National Security Studies