By Stéphane Cohen and Orna Mizrahi
The vacuum in Lebanon's political system continues, shadowed by growing fears that it will deteriorate into a full-scale war against Israel.
So far, more than a year after the end of Michel Aoun's term (in October 2022), all efforts by the political elite to reach a consensus on the new president have failed.
The "Group of Five" (France, Saudi Arabia, the United States, Qatar and Egypt) continues to press for progress in the election of a president, who can also represent Lebanon in possible negotiations with Israel to end the fighting. in the north.
In the absence of a president, the speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, Nabih Berri, and the prime minister of the transitional government, Najib Mikati, are taking advantage of the political vacuum and trying to fulfill the president's duties, although some in Lebanon consider this to be an illegal measure.
In practice, as long as there is no president - who by law must be elected from within the Christian community - the interests of Maronite Christians are left aside in the decision-making process, as well as in the negotiations that the American mediator, Amos . Hochstein, is trying to move forward with Israel.
This frustration is expressed by some of the community's leaders, for example Maronite Patriarch Bechara al Rahi, who in his weekly sermons repeatedly emphasizes the need to act to elect a president.
He claims that Parliament has no mandate to enact laws in the absence of the president, and that the transitional government can only deal with immediate issues and not strategic issues.
Christian leaders who oppose Hezbollah are even more conspicuous.
Thus, Samir Geagea (Lebanese Forces party) and Samy Gemayel (Kataeb party) accuse the transitional government of surrendering to Hezbollah, which has turned the country into a battlefield in the war against Israel and at the same time disrupts the presidential elections.
On the other hand, there are those who support Berri and Mikati and believe that Lebanon should not sit on the sidelines in this difficult time and that it should take advantage of every opportunity to avoid a full-scale war and resolve disputes regarding "national interests" and the land border with Israel, even in the absence of a president.
From Israel's point of view, it is important to make clear to the international parties - led by the United States and France - who are trying to promote the cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, that Hezbollah's attempts to take advantage of the opportunity and intertwining the presidential question of the agreement with Israel must be rejected outright.
Accepting the election of Suleiman Frangieh, Hezbollah's presidential candidate, under the agreement could be an eternal tragedy, as it will strengthen Hezbollah's political status in Lebanon and its influence in decision-making processes.
Source: INSS – The Institute for National Security Studies