The relative failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, the stagnation of the war, the paralysis of aid from the United States and the proximity of the North American elections, along with other elements, place Ukraine in the most critical hour since the war began ago. already two years.
By Ricardo Angoso
Western forecasts regarding the evolution of the Ukrainian war have completely missed the mark. To begin with, the quick Ukrainian victory has not occurred and the war has already passed the halfway mark of two years amid a stalemate. Nor has there been a Russian victory, a military parade as some expected, but rather a long war of attrition that causes thousands of victims to both sides, even if we do not know the numbers of Russian casualties to date.
The Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed, with little progress on the ground and without having managed to reach the coast on the Azov Sea occupied by Russia, thus opening to trade some of its most strategic ports on the Black Sea, and the Russian forces have shown a unexpectedly great resistance to the Ukrainian attacks and still maintain their offensive capacity intact, having obtained some advances on some territories taken by the Ukrainians.
Then, the forecasts that Western sanctions against Russia were going to cause serious damage to the Russian economy and trigger great unrest in the society of this country that would generate massive protests against Putin, as expected in the West, have been absolutely erroneous. Although the war is not popular in Russia, as revealed by a Levada Center survey in which it was stated that 56% of Russians were against the conflict, the popularity of Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to reach almost eighty percent (79,3%) and it is more than likely that in the next presidential elections, in which he is a candidate again, he will exceed the 76% of the votes he obtained in the 2018 elections. Putin has been in power since year 2000 and today there is no one perceived on the political scene who can stand up to him in the next elections.
THE POLITICAL AND DIPLOMATIC FRONT OF THE WAR
Despite the fact that Ukraine has achieved notable successes on the political front, such as the almost unwavering support of the entire West for its cause and the support of the 27 members of the European Union (EU) - except Hungary - for its future inclusion in this organization , this alignment with kyiv, together with the delivery of enormous economic aid and important military supplies, has not served to reverse the course of the war and wrest the occupied territory from the Russians, which is already close to almost 20% of Ukrainian territory. . Russia has officially annexed the Ukrainian departments of Crimea, Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
On the international side, Ukraine also has the support of the United States, despite the fact that aid is on a tightrope due to Republican opposition in Congress to continue supporting the Ukrainians, and the United Kingdom, one of the countries more critical of Russia on the international stage. As a result of this rapprochement with Ukraine, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced during his visit to kyiv on January 12 of this year that Ukraine will receive an aid package of 2024 billion pounds sterling ($2.500 billion) in 3.200 and signed a security cooperation agreement with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The new deal will be in place for 10 years and the UK has promised to continue helping Ukraine during that time period.
However, there have also been some setbacks, such as Hungary's lack of support for their cause and the recent announcement by the Slovak government to no longer send economic and military aid to Ukraine, in a decision not without controversy. However, overall, there have been no major rifts in the EU regarding aid to Ukraine and the Baltic countries - Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia - and Poland have been very proactive in helping the country at war.
THE RETURN OF TRUMP AND ITS IMPACT ON NORTH AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY
When there are barely eight months left until the next North American elections, in which if all the forecasts and polls come true, former President Donald Trump could become the next tenant of the White House, it is more than certain that substantial changes are coming in North American foreign policy. . Trump has already announced, in a threatening manner, that he will end the war with Ukraine in “twenty-four hours” and given the closeness of the former president to the top Russian leader, it is to be assumed how he would do it, surely recognizing the territorial sovereignty and legitimacy of Russia with respect to to the occupied territories and abandoning Ukraine forever.
During his mandate, Trump demonstrated countless times that he despises Europeans, that he openly disdains the EU, which he sees as everything he hates in politics, and that he would even be willing to abandon his European partners in the event of a conflict with Russia. . Trump does not sympathize with the Ukrainian cause, nor has he ever received its president, and even during his term he had a very stormy relationship with kyiv, from which he demanded an investigation into Joe Biden's son, at the risk of cutting off military aid to this country.
But there are more risks, including here to NATO. Trump, who despises almost all of the United States' historical allies and does not believe in the multinational organizations created during the Cold War, nor in cooperation with Europe, could be carried away by his passions and abandon NATO, which he has never joined. wanted to finance because he thinks that Europeans should contribute more to their budget and believes that the United States maintains it simply to defend the European continent. An abandonment by the United States of NATO would create a vacuum in the security and defense of the continent, and could leave Russia a free hand for future interventions against its neighbors, including the Baltic countries, always in its sights. In view of the failures of our great analysts and politicians, this fatal contingency should be among our foreseeable scenarios.
While Trump plays with history and, surely, will take his country on a dangerous and unpredictable roller coaster, just as he did in his first term, Russia shows its teeth to its periphery, attacking Armenia, which it left completely abandoned in front of Azerbaijan to seize Nagorno Karabakh, and also threatening - until now only rhetorically - Georgia and Moldova for their approaches to the EU and NATO. In all three cases, it is clear that European and Atlanticist whims are paid for, and very dearly.
Apart from these foreseeable dangers, the latest report from the Institute Study of War (ISW) highlights that ""Russian forces are preparing to launch a new offensive in the coming weeks once the ground freezes in eastern and southern Ukraine." Ukraine is exhausted, it needs more men that it cannot find, Western aid is not arriving and a new Russian offensive could be the swan song in this endless war with no hint of a political and diplomatic settlement.
Where alarms are raised about the harsh scenario that is emerging this year in Ukraine is in the Baltic, whose small nations that were once members of the “Soviet club” – Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia – fear that a Russian military victory in Ukraine will trigger new “adventures” of Russia against its neighbors, including themselves. Europe alone, without the United States, could not defend itself from a new Russian attack. Apart from these considerations, only France and the United Kingdom possess the deterrent nuclear weapon, about 500 warheads compared to Russia's almost 6.000; a position of clear continental inferiority compared to Moscow. We are in the most critical hour for Ukraine, but also for Europe, and some do not realize it.
Photos by the author of the note: Lviv, Ukraine