By Yoram Schweitzer
Israel is in a protracted war on seven fronts, and the eliminations of Ismail Haniyeh, head of Hamas' Political Bureau, and Fuad Shukr, a senior Hezbollah official, is part of this situation.
The message to Hezbollah, Hamas, Iran and their Axis partners is that Israel has not lost its power and is not the new "weak child" of the region.
Rather, it demonstrates the determination and willingness to attack the heart of your enemies' strongholds with audacity, originality, and a demonstration of intelligence and precise operational capability.
Furthermore, these actions are aimed not only at enemies observing the military campaign but also at Israel's partners and allies, in addition to strengthening the security and sense of security of the inhabitants of Israel and the Jews of the Diaspora.
But, as with any stock, the two trades we looked at yesterday have advantages and disadvantages.
The advantages of Fuad Shukr removal:
1. It was a firm and necessary response to the massacre of teenagers in Majdal Shams. Apparently, it was the weakest option among the alternatives, and its probability of "ending" the event by mitigating this specific conflict is greater than the other alternatives.
2. Shukr's removal sends a clear message to Nasrallah about his organization's exposure and vulnerability, and completely changing the game of balancing the equations; and the determination to continue the "harvest of senior commanders."
3. He also sent a clear message to Iran and its partners (as a reminder, a few hours later, the elimination of Haniyeh in Tehran occurred).
The disadvantages of the elimination by Fuad Shukr:
1. There is a risk of an outbreak against Hezbollah and the Axis of Resistance. There is also the possibility that Hezbollah will react strongly towards communities in the north, including places where it has been careful not to attack, as well as in the cities of Israel: Nahariya and Haifa to Tel Aviv.
2. The objectives, scope, strength and results of Hezbollah's response will dictate Israel's counter-reaction and may lead to an escalation and deterioration of the war at a time less favorable for Israel (in terms of weaponry, order of forces, economy, the exhaustion of reservists, the state of relations with the United States and the negative international and partially internal legitimacy).
It is important to mention that there are also aspects that are really favorable to Israel at this time: the border communities have already been evacuated, the Army's state of alert and preparation is high and there is an urgent need to return the inhabitants safely and soon as possible.
The advantages of the elimination by Ismail Haniyeh:
1. Send a clear message from Israel that it is fulfilling its promise that the current and future leaders of Hamas do not and will not have immunity anywhere in the world, not even in the heart of the stronghold of its main supporter, Iran.
2. Haniyeh's elimination sends a message and reminder to Iran that it is not immune, even at home, and neither are its senior officers and guests from terrorist organizations. This message accompanies the envoy in the specific and precise response to Iran's April 13 attack on Israel, which did not undermine Iran's sense of security over the strategic superiority of the Axis it has formed around Israel.
The disadvantages of Ismail Haniyeh's elimination:
1. Haniyeh was, in essence, a marginal, and mainly symbolic, figure. His physical disappearance will have no significant impact on the status of Hamas, its political or military capabilities, or the organization's internal or inter-Palestinian politics.
2. Its removal will not change anything in Sinwar's policy in general, nor in the hostage agreement in particular, and certainly will not affect the nature and substance of Sinwar's demands.
There may be many talented resources to replace Haniyeh, but the message is clear to the senior leaders of the proxies of the Iranian terrorists, corrupt, tyrants and terrorists ayatollahs: they are bulneralbles and Israel knows where they are at all times, and it just has to give the elimination order.
Hello. May God bless Israel and its people! They have done what was due and the free world should be grateful. Thank you very much, Israel!