The destruction of Syrian army weapons and the Israeli presence in the buffer zone

By Sarit Zehavi and Tal Beeri

Actions necessary to thwart a clear and immediate threat to Israel

On December 8, 2024, the Bashar al-Assad regime collapsed in Syria, after 54 years of the Assad family ruling the country. On November 27, rebel organizations in the Idlib enclave in northwestern Syria launched a surprise attack, backed by Turkey, and within ten days took Syria's main cities: Aleppo, Hama, Homs and the capital Damascus.

At the same time, rebel forces in southern Syria took control of the border area with Israel and drove regime forces out of major towns in Deraa and Quneitra provinces: Sweida, Deraa, Madinat al Baath and Khan Arnabah. Kurdish forces took control of additional areas in eastern Syria, with an emphasis on the geographical strip along the Euphrates River near the border with Iraq, around Al Bukamal, Al Mayadeen and Deir ez-Zor.

The Alawite area in northwestern Syria, on the coastal strip between Tartus and Latakia (a strip with a large Russian military presence), fell to the rebels without a fight.

The various rebel organisations, led by an organisation with a jihadist background - Hayat Tahrir al Sham - which has been designated a terrorist organisation by the United States - currently control Syrian territory together with the Kurds.

With its hundreds of thousands of soldiers and officers deployed across the country, the vast Syrian army barely resisted or participated in the fighting. Their forces retreated as the rebels advanced, shedding their uniforms. Many returned to their homes, while others attempted to flee to neighbouring countries, with a focus on Iraq and Lebanon.

Although the Syrian army has collapsed, all its sites, bases, equipment and weapons remain intact and abandoned. Indeed, as of December 8, anyone could “take home” anything from basic military equipment to advanced conventional weapons, strategic capabilities and even non-conventional weapons such as chemical weapons.

This is the scenario that Israel feared, and indeed it has become a clear and immediate danger.
When regimes crumble, as we have seen, for example, in Iraq (Saddam Hussein) and Libya (Muammar Gaddafi), many elements set their eyes on the loot and pounce on it. In the Syrian case, we are dealing with a large amount of Russian and Iranian weapons and equipment, such as ships, tanks, armored personnel carriers, aircraft, helicopters, air defense systems, missiles of various types (ground-to-ground, ground-to-air, ground-to-sea, cruise, sea-to-sea), intelligence systems and sites (espionage/electronic warfare/observations), and, of course, sites for the development and manufacture of weapons (the CERS Center), where chemical weapons are also more likely to be found.

There is a realistic and dangerous possibility that a war of all against all could break out in Syria, creating a NO ONE’S LAND, with the motivation of seizing the aforementioned weapons and using them against Israel. History indicates that these weapons could potentially be targeted at Israel. The Syrian situation is unstable and it is difficult to predict what will happen. Therefore, it is critical to thwart in advance any potential that could immediately develop into a surprise attack on Israel by rebel groups, some of which have an extremist Islamist ideology.

In the Middle East, there is “no such thing as no such thing” – immediate interests take priority over all other considerations. It is also possible that Iran-backed Hezbollah may maintain certain ties with various rebel groups, allowing them to transfer some of their remaining weapons to it in exchange for large sums of money. Let us recall that the collapse of the Syrian regime also led to the collapse of the Iranian arms corridor to Hezbollah. This has cut off Hezbollah's oxygen tube for reconstruction and military growth.

The Iranians and Hezbollah will do everything possible to find alternatives, adapt and adjust to the new reality, and we anticipate that this issue will be of great concern to us in the future.

In order to thwart the clear and immediate danger described above, as reflected in the large number of weapons left behind by the Syrian Army, Israel launched one of the largest strike operations in the history of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), involving the Air Force and Navy, with the aim of destroying these weapons. Since December 8, the IDF has carried out large-scale strikes throughout Syria to damage and destroy all types of weapons and equipment described above that could pose any kind of threat to Israel in the near and distant future. The operation has carried out more than 300 attacks so far.

Moreover, Israel is operating within the buffer zone located in Syrian territory near Israel's border. Israel learned this lesson on October 7, 2023. Israel understands that its ability to predict the intentions of terrorists is incompatible with Israel's security.

Israel understands that its ability to predict the intentions of a radical Islamic enemy is extremely limited, if not impossible. The concept of deterrence does not exist in the lexicon of extremist ideology and intelligence alerts do not always exist. Given this, Israel's margin for error is minimal in this situation. Therefore, a mistake in assessing intentions could result in the loss of lives of many Israeli citizens. Israel cannot allow another such possibility.

Furthermore, it should be remembered that the separation of forces agreement, which created the buffer zone and was signed with Syria after the Yom Kippur War in 1974, collapsed in practice. It collapsed because the Syrian Army no longer exists and there is no one to support it on the Syrian side. Israel is therefore exercising its right to self-defense and creating a security zone that provides a response to the lessons learned from October 7, as stated above.

Source: Alma – Research and Education Center