By Danny Citrinowicz.
According to various reports, Iran, Hezbollah and possibly other members of the Axis of Resistance intend to attack Israel in the coming days, as revenge for the deaths of Ismail Haniyeh and Fuad Shukr.
From the Iranian point of view, Tehran should choose a response that rebalances the “deterrence equation” vis-à-vis Israel but does not lead to an unwanted war with the Jewish state and especially with the United States.
Iran is willing to risk escalation in order to draw a "red line" for Israel's actions, but Tehran likely hopes that by aiming its missiles at military areas, possibly against the Tel Aviv or Haifa regions, possible to avoid a broader campaign.
In Iran's view, the damage to its sovereignty and, especially, the humiliation it suffered from the elimination of Haniyeh in Tehran forces it to respond.
Either way, Iran claims the next attack will be more significant than the one on April 14.
This warning, along with the possibility that members of the Axis, led by Hezbollah, could actively join the attack, could significantly increase the likelihood of an escalation.
Behind the scenes, the United States' active involvement, both in building a significant force in the region and in trying to rebuild the regional coalition that worked so well on April 14, means that even if Iran attacks, containing the attack by the United States, Israel, and countries in the region will be a key component in containing the escalation, allowing Israel to take a measured response against Iran and/or the Axis countries, if it chooses to respond.
At the same time, the countries in the region also greatly fear an escalation, which will directly affect them.
The relatively rare visit of Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman al Safadi to Tehran shows how much these countries fear for their fate in the event of a regional war, especially Jordan, since most of the Iranian missiles and drones fired on April 14 passed over its territory.
It is likely that al-Safadi attempted to moderate the Iranian response and perhaps conveyed messages from the US administration to leaders in Tehran.
It is also likely that Iran is seeking to create fissures in that coalition to prevent Sunni countries from siding with Israel, and it is very possible that al Safadi has heard these types of messages.
In the wake of all this, it is important to note another significant development: an article published in the newspaper Jomhouri-e Eslami (the voice of the moderate camp in Iran) warns about the recklessness of the Iranian response and about "falling into Israel's trap." which aims to prevent the Iranian president from reducing tensions between Iran and the West.
This article, and the fact that Iran's current president, Pezeshkian, comes from the reformist camp interested in promoting a nuclear deal with the West, indicates the differences of opinion in Iran regarding a possible response.
I do not believe that Iran will directly attack Israel again for fear of a direct Israeli attack that would cause it more embarrassment in the eyes of the MO countries.
However, it is possible that it could attack Israeli assets or embassies or consulates in other countries, so the Israeli government must be very alert.
THE TERRORIST AYATOLAHS AND THEIR DOGS CANNOT DO ANYTHING AGAINST THE LEGITIMATE STATE OF ISRAEL, IF THE AMERICAN ARMED FORCES DO NOT COME BETWEEN THEM BECAUSE I SAY, BELOW I EXPLAIN IT. LONG LIVE ISRAEL.
LAST NIGHT THE TERRORIST AYATOLLAS HAVE ATTACKED THE LARGEST US BARRACKS IN Iraq. AND THERE WERE 5 WOUNDED AMERICAN SOLDIERS, QUESTION IS USA AFRAID OF THE TERRORIST AYATOLLAS OR WAS IT A PARIPÉ??? OR WERE THEY WARNED WHAT WE ARE GOING TO ATTACK???
BLESSING ISRAEL, IF THE TERRORIST AYATOLAS ATTACK THE USA BARRACKS WHY DOES THE USA NOT RESPOND WHAT HAPPENS HERE ARE THEY ALLIES OR ENEMIES??? THE AMERICAN PRESS SAID ABOUT THE ATTACK LAST NIGHT, NOT ME!!!LONG LIVE ISRAEL.
Let the arm of Israel attack, it is very strong and will bring its enemies to their knees. If the United States wants to participate, let them do it. They financed the rise of these crazy terrorists.
Having killed Haniye in Iran, and the Chief of Herzbolah, wasn't it a mistake? Nothing was solved, the miailes keep falling, and the whole country is in panic (Even though they deny it). It's almost time for April 9th, a sad date for the Jews, let's hope we don't add another misfortune.