Although evacuation orders have not yet been issued, the Asian country's Meteorological Agency has urged residents in vulnerable areas to review their disaster preparations and remain alert.
This week, Japan issued an unprecedented alert after a magnitude 7,1 earthquake occurred last August 8. The earthquake, which occurred on Thursday, has increased the risk of a megaearthquake with an epicenter in the Nankai trench, a region recognized for its high tectonic activity, reported the Japan Meteorological Agency.
According to Japanese government estimates, there is a 70-80% probability of a large magnitude earthquake, between 8 and 9, occurring in the next 30 years. In particular, it is feared that an event of this category in the Nankai trench could generate an earthquake of up to 9,1, with possible tsunamis and devastating consequences including the loss of hundreds or thousands of lives and multimillion-dollar economic damage.
This unprecedented alert responds to the recommendation of a group of advisors who study the Nankai trench. This group has noted that the probability of a megaearthquake in the area has increased significantly.
Faced with this situation, the Japan Meteorological Agency has urged residents in vulnerable areas to review their disaster preparations and remain alert, although no evacuation orders have been issued.
It is necessary to mention that the Nankai trench is located off the southwest coast of the Japanese Pacific and extends for approximately 900 kilometers. At this point, the Philippine plate converges under the Eurasian plate, accumulating tensions that have historically triggered megaearthquakes every 100 to 150 years.
The last major activity in this trench occurred in 1946, with a magnitude 8 earthquake that caused a tsunami and left more than 1.300 dead.
As is known, the Asian giant is one of the most seismically active countries of the world. The country's tectonic structure, along with a history of devastating earthquakes, requires constant vigilance and rigorous preparations against potential natural disasters.
Would megaearthquake affect Peru?
In parallel to what was mentioned by the Japanese authorities, the Geophysical Institute of Peru (IGP) has indicated that the conditions for an 8.8 magnitude earthquake to occur off the central Peruvian coast are quite high. “It could be a year from now, 50 years, 100 years, but the earthquake is going to happen. What we are looking for here is that, with this information, we really begin to prepare,” the executive president of the Institute, Hernando Tavera, recently told RPP.
Additionally, the chilean authorities recently pointed out that, given the occurrence of a megaearthquake in Japanese territory, the tsunami that would be generated would take more than 20 hours to reach South American territory.
In this regard, Manuel Monsalve, Undersecretary of the Interior of Chile, recently addressed the possible impacts of a “megaearthquake” that could occur in Japan. According to Publimetro, the authority highlighted that, if the Prime Minister of Japan considered it meaningful to return to his country and cancel an important trip due to this alert, "it is information that must be considered relevant."
In addition, he added that, if a tsunami were generated, “it would be delayed more than 20 hours to reach the Chilean coast”, which would provide enough time for authorities to prepare an appropriate response.
Second Multi-Hazard Drill
It should be noted that next Thursday, August 15, at 15.00:XNUMX p.m., the second National Multihazard Drill of 2024 in Peru. This exercise, promoted by the National Institute of Civil Defense (Indeci), aims to strengthen the population's response to various natural phenomena according to the geographical characteristics of each region of the country.
En Metropolitan Lima and Callao, the drill will focus on an 8.8 magnitude earthquake with its epicenter on the central coast of the country.
According to Indeci, the drill will include a series of sequential events that simulate a realistic disaster scenario. In Lima and Callao, it will begin with the sound of horns, bells and whistles that simulate the impact of the earthquake, followed by the indication that the population must move to previously identified internal safe areas.
This exercise is not only limited to the earthquake, but will also include the simulation of a tsunami and mass movements, for which a specific response protocol has been planned.
Tsunami alert on the Peruvian coast?
In statements for Infobae Peru, Hernando Tavera, Chairman of the Geophysical Institute of Peru (PGI), explained that, if a magnitude 9 or 9.5 earthquake in Japan, there is a high probability that a tsunami and reach the national coastline.
“Japan and Peru share the Pacific Ocean and are located on the Pacific Ring of Fire. Peru is highly seismic, like Japan. Historically, both countries have generated quite large tsunamis. These tsunamis travel throughout the ocean until they reach another continent,” said the expert.
There are different types of tsunamis and their classification depends on the epicenter of the earthquake that generated it: they can be local, regional o teletsunamis. “It is important to highlight that there is no tidal wave"There is only the term tsunami," said Tavera.
“Local is when the earthquake occurs in front of Lima and the tsunami affects Lima. Regional ones occur when the earthquake occurs in Chile, Ecuador or Colombia and affects Lima or other parts of the national coast. And the teletsunamis, when the earthquake occurs in Japan or New Zealand and the waves cross the entire Pacific Ocean and affect the Peruvian coast,” he noted.