Meanwhile, in various parts of the world, such as Ukraine, Gaza, the Caucasus and Asia, several crises remain open and no solutions are in sight in the short term.
In the United States, Donald Trump will almost certainly return to the White House and Putin will be re-elected as president of Russia with no competitors or opposition in sight, while Europeans will elect a new European Parliament in June next year.
by Ricardo Angoso
The Ukrainian War. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine appears increasingly stagnant and no major territorial changes are detected on the ground despite the fact that the war continues. The famous Ukrainian counteroffensive seems to have ended in rocky waters, without major advances or changes, while Russia seems to show greater offensive and resistance capacity against the Ukrainians. With 20% of Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia, in this war of attrition that the conflict has become, the Russians have much better chances in the long term of continuing to resist than Ukraine. They have more men, weapons and time. Apart from these considerations, we must point out the wear and tear of the West in the face of war and the lack of willingness on the part of both parties to sit down to negotiate, despite the fact that Kiev should seriously consider a negotiated solution to a conflict that will not be resolved by the force of arms, since Russia shows a capacity for resilience that has exceeded Western expectations without, furthermore, economic sanctions having apparently caused it great damage.
The Middle East conflict. The Hamas terrorist attack against Israel on October 7 has blown up all the bridges and channels of dialogue between Palestinians and Israelis. The blow to the Jewish State, at a cost of more than 1.300 victims, 3.000 wounded and some 250 hostages kidnapped, ended up degenerating into the Gaza offensive, with thousands more dead, and into an open war between Hamas and Israel in which the worst Part of it has been taken by the two million inhabitants of this territory. They have simply become Hamas hostages as well. Israel has already announced that it will destroy Hamas and that this terrorist group will never rule in Gaza again, while instability has gripped the entire region, including Lebanon, where attacks by the pro-Iranian group Hezbollah against Israel and the Israeli raids against positions of the terrorists of this organization. The final conclusion is that we are increasingly further away from the “two-state” formula to resolve the conflict and that trust between the parties to reach a political agreement that brings peace to the region seems to be restored, today. , almost unattainable objectives.
Tensions in the Caucasus. Although the year ends with the total defeat of Armenia in the Caucasus wars, having perhaps lost forever the enclave of Nagorno Karabakh, from which more than 102.000 inhabitants of its 120.000 registered population have already left, peace remains on. with pins and needles in this part of the world. The victorious position from which Azerbaijan has emerged from the war, which continues to have territorial desires with respect to Armenia, suggests that a true peace treaty between these countries that would put an end to their secular disputes and confrontations is still far away. Armenia, which was abandoned by everyone in the third Caucasus war, or the one-day war between September 19 and 20 of this year, is in a much weaker position than Azerbaijan and without strong regional allies, since Russia and Turkey supported Baku in the last crisis when the Azeris occupied Nagorno-Karabakh from the Armenians. Without that peace treaty that we referred to before, the sword of Damocles continues to hang over Armenia.
The return of Donald Trump. If the American voters do not remedy this and the polls are not wrong, surely the next president of the United States will be Donald Trump, which will mean a great change at a global level and will have consequences throughout the planet. For Ukraine, given Trump's closeness to Russian President Vladimir Putin, it could mean its definitive capitulation to Russia and the cession of some territories demanded by the Russians. Without Western aid and American support, Ukraine would not survive the war for many more months. A new “glaciation” is also to be expected in relations between the United States and its NATO partners and the European Union (EU), which the top North American leader openly and openly despises. With respect to China, as we saw in his first term, an improvement in their relations is not to be expected, but rather the opposite, and the increase in political, economic and commercial tensions will once again be present in the relations between these two. giants.
Venezuela's elections. Although many positive expectations have been generated regarding the candidacy of the opposition María Corina Machado, there are serious doubts that the Nicolás Maduro regime will guarantee free, transparent elections with full guarantees for the democratic opposition. The key is to know if the Venezuelan regime, once defeated as the polls suggest in a clean process, will be able to allow the change and open a process of transition to democracy or, on the contrary, it will entrench itself in its “bunker.” making any attempt at political change impossible to the current stalemate.
Mexico, on its electoral couch before crucial elections. The elections scheduled for this year in Mexico do not seem to show major political changes and the successor coalition of the ruling Morera, We Continue Making History, appears in all the polls and polls at a great distance from its main opponent, Fuerza y Corazón por México (FCM). The candidate of We Continue Making History, Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, doubles the voting intention of Xóchitl Gálvez Ruiz, candidate of FCM. In short, if these predictions come true, we can predict a total defeat of the traditional parties (PRI, PAN and PRD), which make up FCM, and a clear consolidation of the ascendant Mexican left despite the years of wear and tear of the government in these six years.
Decisive year for Argentina. The newly elected Argentine president, Javier Milei, faces enormous challenges this year after having generated great expectations in Argentine society and after a great victory against the Peronists. Milei will have to face annual inflation of 160%, poverty that exceeds 40% of the Argentine census, little or no international credibility in the markets and international financial organizations, stop the alarming growing insecurity in the streets and, finally, must reestablish its relations with the world after a few years characterized by Argentina having blurred its traditional foreign policy, distancing itself from the United States and the European Union (EU) for years.
No setbacks for Putin's re-election. Without freedom of the press and with all dissidents detained, exiled or silenced, the current Russian president Vladimir Putin has a relatively easy time being re-elected in the next elections to be held in March of this year. In recent years, Putin dismantled every vestige of the few freedoms and rights that Russians had, banned and persecuted all organizations, media and forces that questioned his totalitarian project and ended, uprooting it, any glimmer of hope for a free and democratic Russia.
Asia, between Taiwan and North Korea. China, which does not consider Taiwan a country but rather a “rebel island” that will one day be annexed, is very attentive to the elections to be held on the island this January of the year that begins and expects a defeat of the current ruling party, the Progressive Democrat, and a victory for the Kuomitang (nationalist), less belligerent with respect to its positions. Although tension will continue in the area, especially due to the constant violations of Taiwan's air and maritime space by Chinese planes and ships, it does not seem that a large-scale military invasion will occur this year. As for North Korea, rearmament plans continue and it periodically continues its tests and launches of ballistic missiles in the Sea of Japan. And he has even threatened to develop missiles capable of reaching the United States. Its neighbors, but mainly South Korea and Japan, follow with concern the increasing militarization of the North Korean communist regime, which does not spare itself in explosive and threatening statements, such as provoking a nuclear attack against the United States. North Korea, by the way, has become one of Russia's main allies in this area of the world and appears to be helping the Russians militarily in the war in Ukraine.
India will renew its legislature. If there are no last-minute surprises and changes in electoral trends, the Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, will win the next legislative elections to be held in the first half of 2024, which will mean the consolidation of the nationalist accent in Indian foreign policy. India remains increasingly distant from the West, while maintaining its political closeness with Russia, from which it buys weapons and supports its Ukrainian “crusade”, and flirts with China, despite the fact that they have several unresolved territorial disputes and have had some military confrontations in recent years.
Elections to the European Parliament. They will be crucial elections and a test as to whether the advance of the extreme right is really consolidated on the continent or if, on the contrary, it is a passing trend typical of a moment of social, political and economic unrest. It will also be a key event to determine if the crisis of social democracy takes hold and the socialist or social democratic parties remain immersed in their serious loss of votes that has led to their disappearance in numerous countries, such as Italy, France, Greece, Hungary and Poland. , to give just a few examples. It also remains to be seen the costs for the German social democrats of their controversial (and useless) coalition government with the greens and liberals, in what is known as the “traffic light” executive, and for the Spanish socialists of Pedro Sánchez -the PSOE-, in the sense if the voters will pass the bill for the famous Amnesty Law and for their pacts with Bildu, the political arm of ETA.