This war between Israel and Hamas that broke out on October 7, 2023, and is being fought on seven war fronts simultaneously, has too many new features. The unprecedented circumstances of a conflict between unequal parties. Not only in the military, but also in everything related to ideologies and ways of seeing life. It is, by far, a war of civilizations in many aspects. Perhaps the term civilization is too big in this context.
This is an unconventional confrontation. It is a country, which fits within the accepted order of nations, against criminalized but unpunished hosts supported by condemned but tolerated regimes. It is a confusing and confusing terrain, with too many civilian victims and unpleasant collateral damage that is impossible to avoid. It is a major drama of our times, incomprehensible, difficult to overcome by conventional means that were relatively or partially successful in the past.
But there are historical precedents that might illustrate. When Neville Chamberlain made a pact with Hitler, Winston Churchill dared to challenge him in the midst of the former's early euphoria. He accused him of choosing appeasement of the Nazi beast over deterrence, and for this he predicted with cold precision that Britain and the world would pay in blood, sweat and tears. So it was. And, of course, the largest amount of such fluids spilled, absolute and proportional, was the responsibility of the Jews. Again, sadly, not the last in history.
Within hours of October 7, 2023, a world shocked by the events was able to observe the statement or warning of President Joe Biden on his visit to the Middle East. Many took it as a show of power and discipline aimed at restoring a lost order, to prevent things from going any further, and that they had already gone too far. His famous expression "no" It was understood by some as a severe reprimand that would bring immediate consequences, by others as a show of solidarity with the victim in question. At such a difficult time, the Israelis took it as a sincere show of support and solidarity. And there should be no doubt that the intentions of the American president were to prevent the conflict from escalating, to free the hostages taken and that, in one way or another, common sense would prevail among all those involved. This was not the case.
With more than four hundred days of war and death, there are one hundred kidnapped people without proof of life who are claimed, mourned and demanded by their families. A completely blurred Middle East. When this note is written, and it is worth mentioning, it is not known for sure what is happening in Syria, who assumes power or what tendency those who seem to be in charge of the suffering country will have.
Joe Biden played the card of appeasement rather than deterrence. In good faith, he imposed no deadlines, no advance actions or sanctions. He chose to trust in the good judgment and survival logic of those involved, perhaps assuming that his reasoning would be shared and understood. Avoiding an expansion of the conflict and hostilities, maintaining a certain status quo with even minor modifications, seemed to be an intelligent strategy if it had been accepted and understood. This was not the case.
Unlike Joe Biden, the President-elect of the United States of America, Donald Trump, has promised hell for the Middle East if the hostages are not released before his inauguration on January 20, 2025. This rhetoric, far from being based on appeasement, relies on the theoretical deterrent power of the world's leading power. No very concrete progress can be pointed to, but there is a certain willingness to renew negotiations to release hostages and some other progress so far without significant results.
The proven fact is that the policy of appeasement has not worked. The parties in conflict have felt free to escalate the violence, some paying for it with their own destruction. We are not sure whether deterrence will work, whether the fear of something worse will result in any motivation to cease the conflict or at least lower its intensity. But we do know that appeasement has not worked.
The sad thing about all this is that we are living this situation in the 21st century, which is also being experienced live and direct by the most advanced means of communication, without censorship and without shame. With very limited expectations and with irreversible damage in all aspects. Material, psychological.
It was not understood "no" of Joe Biden, The hell that looms Donald Trump has already tasted in abundance. From "no" To hell, the distance doesn't seem very long... be careful if it doesn't exist.
Elias Farache S.