Bakhmut, Russian Stalingrad?

If Stalingrad was a great debacle for the Germans and the beginning of the decline of Nazi Germany, Bakhmut may be the beginning of the end of the Russian Army in Ukraine.

Ricardo Angoso

The days and weeks go by and the objective of conquering Bakhmut, a city that would become the spearhead to attack other towns and consolidate the Russian positions in the Donbas, is a distant, arduous objective whose cost, in human and material terms, , is being immensely high for the Russian Army. The Ukrainian resistance is fierce, house by house, street by street, and each Russian advance costs too much blood, although nothing seems to stop the attacks and try to take the entire city at any cost.

The value that Bakhmut has for the Russians was highlighted and highlighted by one of the most prominent close associates of the President of Russia, the head of the Russian mercenary company Wagner, the businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin, who warned that, if his troops withdraw from Bakhmut, a city in eastern Ukraine, “the entire front will collapse.” In his opinion, “if the private military company Wagner withdraws from Bakhmut,” Prigozhin said in a video posted on YouTube, the collapse could “reach the borders of Russia and, perhaps, beyond.” 

Western secret services consider that the Russian forces are short of ammunition and have poorly prepared forces militarily for the final offensive on Bakhmut. It must be taken into account that the main weight of the Battle of Bakhmut falls on the Wagners, in whose ranks thousands of well-paid but unmotivated inmates and mercenaries fight. These men, many inexperienced in military matters, are the main assault force trying to conquer Bakhmut, an important communications hub, linked by roads to Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, the largest cities in the Donetsk region controlled by Ukrainian forces. The Russians advance more and more slowly and barely take any Ukrainian cities and territories.

While, on the Ukrainian side, motivation is high, morale remains intact after a year of war and very soon the effects of the arrival of huge military supplies from the West and destined for the Ukrainian forces will begin to be felt. On the contrary, the leader of the Wagners has denounced that the Russian Ministry of Defense seems very little concerned and determined to support its men, send them ammunition and acquire a more leading role in the battle of Bakhmut, whose final outcome is uncertain and It is generating divisions in the Russian military leadership.

And apart from the battle of Bakhmut, there is another war between the head of the Wagners and the Russian Defense Minister, as the BBC pointed out in its pages these days: “If he does not achieve a victory in Bakhmut, his political influence in Moscow it will decrease.” Prigozhin is at odds with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who criticizes his tactics and now reproaches him for not having enough ammunition. There is, says analyst Serhii Kuzan, a political struggle between the two men for influence in the Kremlin "and this struggle is taking place in Bakhmut and its surroundings."

RUSSIAN FAILURE, UKRAINE RESISTANCE

According to Ukrainian military expert Serhiy Grabskiy, quoted by the Spanish newspaper 20 Minutes, the Russian offensive on Bakhmut has shown signs of slowing down, and could have reached its “peak” intensity without the Kremlin forces having managed to take control. from the city. It is clear that the Battle of Bakhmut clearly shows the weaknesses of the Russian forces, especially their inability to advance in the face of stubborn Ukrainian resistance, and their stagnation on all battle fronts. The supposed military parade, which some senior Russian military commanders strutted about, has remained, for now, in borage waters.

Bakhmut, as happened to the Germans with Stalingrad, has gone from being a symbol of the strength of the invading army to a dark chapter in a war that already seems impossible to win by military means. Putin, who continues to disdain any possibility of dialogue with Ukraine or undertaking a political negotiation to end the conflict, is getting increasingly mired in the war in Ukraine without seeing in the short or long term a reasonable and decent solution to the biggest mistake. policy that he has committed throughout his career.

If the Ukrainians resist in Bakhmut, as the Russians did in Stalingrad and even with the ability to take the initiative, the war will perhaps change its course definitively. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has made the city an emblem of resistance. When he visited Washington in December, he called it “the strength of our morale” and presented a Bakhmut flag to the US Congress. The Ukrainians are not going to surrender so easily in Bakhmut and will fight to the death to defend this city, which has already become an emblem of struggle, courage and resistance.

Apart from the thousands of unquantified casualties that the Russians could have suffered, which hide the number of them since the beginning of the war, the fall of the city for the Ukrainians would not be the end of the war, since it is not a such a vital or strategic objective for their army, while for the Russians this endless bloodletting could have fatal consequences for their forces, it would exacerbate tensions and divisions in the command and reduce their leadership capacity in an increasingly long, exhausting and bloody war. . Stalingrad was the beginning of the end of the Third Reich and since that battle it never raised its head again, meaning, in the long run, the final defeat, with more pain than glory, of Germany. It is difficult to predict what the end of the Battle of Bakhmut will be, but there is no doubt that after several weeks of intense fighting we are facing a fundamental episode in this war and that numerous lessons and consequences for both sides will emerge from its outcome.