By Jonathan Spyer
Syrian Kurdish leader Ilham Ahmed says Israel must be part of the security situation in the Middle East amid rising tensions between the SDF and the Islamist rulers in Damascus.
The Kurdish-dominated Autonomous Administration of Northeast Syria (AANES) currently controls around 30% of Syrian territory. Its de facto area of control includes most of Syria’s oil and gas, as well as a large part of its best agricultural land and water resources. This area is also of great strategic importance.
Prior to the fall of the Assad regime, it served as a partial barrier to Iran’s ability to move fighters and materiel into Lebanon, the Mediterranean Sea, and Israel. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the military force of the AANES, is the principal ally of the United States and the global coalition in the ongoing fight against ISIS.
The sudden fall of the Assad regime in December 2024 presents the Autonomous Administration and the SDF with a new set of dilemmas. The Syrian Kurds are well acquainted with the Sunni jihadists of the Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) organization, who now rule in Damascus.
As a veteran Syrian war reporter, I recall covering the fighting in Sere Kaniyeh/Ras al Ain in mid-2013, when the Kurds resisted an attempt by an early iteration of HTS, then called Jabhat al Nusra, to break into their area of control.
Now re-established as politicians and statesmen, HTS leaders are the happy recipients in Damascus of a stream of senior officials from European countries and other nations. HTS has made it clear that it intends to extend its authority over the entire territory of Syria.
They reject any possibility of a federal system for Syria. The new rulers also rule out any continued role for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), either as a separate force or as a unit within a new Syrian army, which is yet to be established.
TWO WEEKS AGO, I was in northeastern Syria, where I interviewed Ilham Ahmed, a senior official in the Autonomous Administration, to find out how Syrian Kurds view the current situation and the options they face. Ahmed’s official title is Co-Chair of the Autonomous Administration’s Foreign Relations Department. In practice, she acts as the agency’s foreign minister.
Ahmed's record
Originally from Afrin in northwestern Syria, Ahmed is a veteran Syrian Kurdish opposition figure and activist. She has emerged in recent years as an articulate and influential Syrian Kurdish official. Famously, at an informal meeting at the Trump International Hotel in 2019, then-President Donald Trump promised Ahmed that he would not abandon Syria’s Kurds.
I first met and interviewed her in 2016 in the city of Qamishli. Recently, we spoke in an office used by the Syrian Democratic Forces near the city of Hasakah.
On the question of the different visions of the new rulers of Damascus and the administration of which she is a part, Ahmed noted: “Militarily and administratively, there are many divisions in Syria. Northeast Syria has the AANES. The coastal cities have their own special situation. The Druze communities have their own administration and their own factions to protect their regions. In Idlib and other regions, they also have their own administration and factions.
“So now, if someone suddenly comes to gather or unify all these people under one system, it will open the way to an internal civil war. This will not be acceptable to the different parts of Syria.”
But is this what HTS is trying to do? “The concern is that HTS could follow the path of ‘one ruler’ in Syria and not give others the opportunity to participate. We all know the background and history of HTS.”
HTS has claimed that they have changed from their jihadist origins. Should we take this seriously? “It is still too early to draw conclusions on this. They are sensitive to this issue and are trying to give the impression that they have separated themselves from Al Qaeda. So let’s wait and see.”
Meanwhile, she opposes material concessions to the Islamist rulers in Damascus, in areas such as sanctions relief and the designation of HTS as a terrorist organization, saying current restrictions should remain.
“Removing HTS from the terrorist list and lifting sanctions on Syria will lead to two things: HTS will take full control of Syria and create its own system, and they will not give others any role or change their ideology.”
What about the SDF? Under certain circumstances, would you agree to merge into a new Syrian army?
“We have no problem with the Syrian Democratic Forces being part of the Ministry of Defense or the official Syrian army, but with its own special status,” he said. “It would have to have some kind of involvement in leading the entire army.”
It is clear that if a crisis arises between the SDF and HTS (and at present, the positions of both seem somewhat irreconcilable), the US role will be crucial.
The continued presence of US forces east of the Euphrates acts as the main guarantee for Syrian Kurds against a possible invasion by Turkey or an allied Islamist group. But will the US stay? Ahmed was optimistic about this.
“Earlier this year, there were several ISIS attacks in the US and in our region, too, the rate of ISIS attacks is increasing. The Turkish attacks are encouraging ISIS. Given all this, I think the Trump administration’s stance will be clear on this.”
How does she view relations between Israel and the Syrian Kurdish leadership?
Ahmed, who recently spoke with [Israeli] Foreign Minister Gideon Saar by phone, according to Israeli media reports, responded cautiously and diplomatically. “The Middle East crisis requires everyone to understand that without Israel and the Jewish people playing a role, there will be no democratic solution for the region.”
“Securing the border areas in Syria requires everyone to be involved in the solution, and Israel is one of the parties involved. Its role is going to be very important, so having the discussion with Israel at this time is very important.”
What is the deeper meaning of the fall of the Assad regime? She paused for a moment. “I was once arrested by the Syrian regime in Lebanon, years ago. I spent two months in the regime’s prison. From the way I was interrogated and beaten, I learned the reality of the Syrian regime.”
“I knew that as long as he existed, there was not the slightest hope for anyone to have even the slightest degree of freedom in this country. Therefore, overthrowing him was essential. What is needed now is for the former regime’s personnel to be held accountable.”
“We have concerns now, but the fall of the regime at least gives us the opportunity to build the new Syria we want for the Syrian people.”
Despite these hopeful sentiments, it is difficult to see how the agendas of HTS and the Autonomous Administration/SDF can be reconciled in the long term. The former is clearly moving towards a centralised, Islamic regime based on Sharia law. The latter advocates its own vision of decentralisation, women’s rights and secularism.
There is also the question of whether the combined strength of the Syrian Democratic Forces and international support will be enough to deter Islamist and Turkish aggression, or whether the West's desire to get rid of the Syrian problem will leave the Kurdish administration stranded, with the choice between defiance and renewed conflict or capitulation to an emerging Islamist regime.
We will know soon.
One thing can be said with confidence: the SDF base where I met Ahmed looked like that of a regular army. The Syrian Kurds have spent fourteen years building, with considerable sacrifice, what they now possess. They will not give it up easily.
Source: The Jerusalem Post