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Why the truce in Lebanon is a major blow to Hezbollah: “Their withdrawal is a defeat”

November 28th 2024 , ,
Photo: Israel Defense Forces

Experts are discussing the 60-day ceasefire between the sides, which stipulates a withdrawal of Iranian-backed terrorist militias north of the Litani River.

By Isaac J. Martin

The ceasefire to stop the war between Israel and the group Lebanese Shia Hezbollah, which came into force on Wednesday in Lebanon, is a “hard blow” and even a “defeat” for the armed formation, they indicated to EFE several analysts, who are hopeful that the agreed points will not be violated.

“Hezbollah was born between the Bekaa (east) and southern Lebanon, and it evolved in these two regions to reach a powerful point. And now they are sending it north of the Litani (river). It is a hard blow. It is a huge blow. They are sending them back years and into the past.”, Lebanese security and politics analyst Georges Haddad told EFE.

The 60-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, which will be guaranteed by the United States and France, stipulates a withdrawal of the Lebanese Shiite group's forces north of the Litani River, as well as the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from southern Lebanon; and, finally, negotiations between the two countries to delimit their border, which is currently a line drawn by the UN after the 2006 war.

Is this a defeat for the group?

For Haddad, this does not constitute a “defeat” of the Shiite group, since that word would be used in the case of Hezbollah being completely demilitarized and losing its weapons, to fall into the “rules of the Lebanese system,” a phase in which “we are not yet.”

However, the researcher in Middle East and author of the book 'Hezbollah A Regional Armed Non-State Actor' (Hezbollah, a regional non-state armed actor), Hadi Wahab, tells EFE that “if we look at their position before the war and what the agreement is, their withdrawal is undoubtedly a defeat.”

“In addition to everything that has happened in Lebanon, the losses, the destruction and the displaced, they are certainly in a difficult situation,” he said.

Hezbollah's leadership has been decapitated by Israel, especially after its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was eliminated just two months ago in the southern suburbs of Beirut, known as el Dahye.

Hundreds of its fighters have been killed since crossfire broke out between Hezbollah and Israel along the border on October 8, 2023, a situation that escalated on September 23 with an incessant Israeli bombing campaign and, a week later, the ground invasion in the south of the country.

During the two-month offensive, more than 3.100 people have been killed and more than 1,2 million have been forced to flee their homes, especially in southern and eastern Lebanon, as well as in the Dahye.

Haddad It also addresses how the Shiite group has lost popularity in part of Lebanese society, including within its own community, which is seeking to disarm it.

And the big question is: “What happens now? Why do you need your weapons inside the country if the Lebanese Army is in charge of protecting the border and you no longer have the right to operate in those areas?” he says.

He added that “Hezbollah will have to be re-examined or repositioned in this political sphere, with its existence as it is now and in an environment in which its objective has disappeared.”

Will Hezbollah honor the ceasefire?

Another question is whether there will be any violation of the agreements during these two crucial months.

Hezbollah, whose main ally is Iran, "has accepted the ceasefire and it would be irrational to break it" as that would give "the green light to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu" to attack Lebanon again, says Wahab.

Haddad, for his part, does not believe that the agreement will be violated if there is truly a “tangible ceasefire,” even after the 60 days.

Added to this, as Haddad points out, is the question of how the joint committee to oversee the implementation of the ceasefire will function, in which both Israel and Lebanon will report any breach of these obligations to the committee and to the United Nations peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon (UNIFIL), commanded by Spain.

Following the ceasefire, hundreds of people have begun to return to their villages and towns in eastern and southern Lebanon, as well as to Dahye, although the Lebanese army has asked those who have their homes in areas still occupied by Israel not to return yet.

(With information from EFE)
Source: INFOBAE

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