Where is Israel at militarily?

The lack of a political strategy for the day after and international pressures have complicated the country's efforts in Gaza. Internal problems aggravate the war situation

By Ricardo Israel

Carl von Clausewitz (1780-1831), the most important theorist of war, defined it as "the continuation of the policy by other means”, so the situation of Israel eleven months after the Gaza It only confirms the Prussian's genius. What we can add is Sun Tzu (544 BC-496 BC) who tells us that "wars only end when the combatants' will to fight ends," which has not happened with Hamas, which also has undisputed popular support among a sector of those who live in Gaza.

As is known, everything started with a decision by Iran de prevent Saudi Arabia and Israel from moving forward in talks to sign a peace treaty. Hamas invaded Israel causing the death of 1200 people and the kidnapping of 251 Israelis and other nationalities, of whom remain 104 as hostages, the number of survivors being unknown.

Israel's military response was met with immediate response across the entire "arc of fire" of Iranian proxies in the case of Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah In Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and similar groups in Iraq and Syria as well as anti-Israeli statements from many countries, in addition to condemnations at the United Nations, and arrest warrants for Netanyahu from International Criminal Court as well as very biased media, which have generally forgotten how this war began and the fate of the hostages.

In my opinion, Hamas will only be a stage in a conflict that began this way, but which will almost inevitably be followed by a even more complicated confrontation and it is difficult with Hezbollah in Lebanon and then with whoever is behind it all, the Islamic Republic of Iran, surely as a preventive measure, the day that there is evidence that the police already have atomic bomb.

For Israel it is existential since that bomb is intended for its destruction, and everything indicates that it will have the support of the Sunni Arab world, but one of the consequences of the current Gaza conflict is that with some probability the level of support of EE. UU, especially in the use of weapons that only Washington possesses, will depend on the result of the presidential elections in November, unexpected for a major power and an ally.

I think Israel has prepared for this and it will be successful, for its own sake but also for the West, the real war that Israel is fighting, even if it is not yet obvious to many, since since 1979 Iran has been waging a jihad against the very idea of ​​the West, in a scenario where the US has lost deterrence and appeasement simply has not worked, but that alone explains the rapprochement with Israel of Arab countries that also feel threatened by Tehran.

In any case, if on October 8 it had been said that almost a year later, the war is still going on in Gaza, and with a Netanyahu questioned If the US were still in power, probably not many in Israel would have believed it, even if the government said that this time it would last a long time. The reason is that this experience is new, because except for the war of independence (1948-49), Israel's wars had always been short, such as the famous six-day war in 1967, to which has now been added something as unexpected as the US trying to stop the Israeli advance, just as it was not entering Rafah at the opportune moment to try to end the war. Israel did so later, but self-limitingly, without the desired force, and if Washington acted like this it was because of the way this war has impacted its presidential election.

The line for the sum is that, although it has had a good military performance, these other non-military elements have helped to ensure that the objectives proposed at the start of the war have not been met, since Hamas has not completely succumbed nor have many hostages been rescued, including the fact that Hamas has rejected the proposals of the trio of mediators, the US, Egypt and Qatar. On the other hand, a major obstacle has been the fact that Israel has been unable to propose a political alternative for when the war ends, Gaza will be administered without the participation of Hamas, and neither the Palestinian Authority nor Arab countries will participate until Hamas is defeated first.

There is no sign of a change in this virtual stalemate, as Israel cannot use all its military power due to external political pressures, something that today could only occur in the context of a direct confrontation with Iran, but it seems difficult that this will happen, because The Islamic Republic knows that Israel is superior to it militarily, so it prefers to continue acting with proxies.

A very important asset of Israel is that it goes to war without any major problems or unrest with its minorities, since almost 24% of the population are not Jewish. This is particularly true for the Arab minority, which has a large representation in the Knesset or Israeli parliament, as well as Druze and Bedouin who serve with distinction in the armed forces. However, from the Israeli point of view, the worst thing that has happened to them is that the national unity that emerged after October 7, when the military response enjoyed the support of the Jewish majority, has been broken. Massive street demonstrations have returned and differences have increased over the conduct and objectives of the war.

This is how even in the cabinet Public differences have emerged between the Prime Minister and the Minister of Defence As well as the resignation of the person representing the opposition to Netanyahu, who owes his political survival not to national unity, but to the votes contributed by far-right parties, which, instead of collaborating, have harmed the war effort by the division that has arisen, since the unity just described is essential for military success, above all, because of the differences that have arisen with the US. In addition, the prolongation of the war puts a small country like Israel in a complicated situation in terms of the country's economic situation, in almost unprecedented conditions of strong military mobilization and discussion about whether a "total" victory can be achieved. And that is even though eleven months later there has still been no "regional" war, as those who know little about the region exaggeratedly warned.

Netanyahu is the longest serving prime minister in Israel's history, but he is a product that, like yogurt, has an expiration date, since there will undoubtedly be a war after this war, just as in 1973. Highest level commission of inquiry, probably chaired by some minister of the Supreme Court to determine responsibilities in what happened on October 7, where the government and the military commanders failed in their duty to protect the country, being inexplicable not only the invasion, but above all, the fact that the attackers remained for too long without the army appearing in time. Similarly, it remains difficult to understand how Hamas was able to create a network of tunnels underground, which are larger than the subways in New York and London.

Above all, Israel lost something as important as the deterrence, and today the military success it has achieved despite the very difficult conditions involved in fighting in highly populated areas, as also demonstrated by the American experience in Iraq.

If the military has been successful, Israel, as before, has failed in political matters, and everything that has to do with image and international sympathy, in addition to facing the world with an unexpected resurgence in the streets and universities of the West of the oldest and most persistent of phobias, Judeophobia, anti-Semitism.

But before everything must defeat HamasAnd what exactly does “defeating it” mean? Does it mean eradicating it completely, including its ideology, or just that it no longer poses a military threat to Israel and its own people? I think the second is that it no longer has the possibility of posing a danger as it has shown to be since Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza in 2007, nor can it provoke a war.

In the immediate future, the US must ensure that its remnants do not become an obstacle to reconstruction or a new government, and that there is a commitment from other countries that, in order to participate, need Hamas to no longer have the power it once had, which is especially relevant for Sunni countries such as the Emirates, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and outside the Middle East. Of course, the US needs to clarify what it is willing or not to do and recover national unity, which is now lost amid its internal polarization.

As long as Hamas remains active, even if diminished, it may not have the capacity to govern, but it can prevent or make it difficult for others to do so. As long as it retains some capacity, Israeli withdrawal becomes more difficult, as evidenced by the importance that the Philadelphia corridor, that is, the strip of land in southern Gaza that runs parallel to the border with Egypt. Apparently, the weapons that allowed both the Hamas attack on October 7 and the construction of the rockets that arrived daily to different parts of Israel before this war entered through there, and if they did not cause the damage that their enemies expected, it is exclusively due to the existence of the Iron Dome, the Israeli Iron Dome that intercepts them.

Today Israel is divided, not between Jews and non-Jews, but within the Jewish people between those who want more to be given at any cost to rescue the hostages who are still alive. This corresponds to a very understandable demand of the relatives who have now united in mass protests with those who want something different, such as Netanyahu's departure, where, especially abroad, there is a mistaken idea that policies that are state-related would be personal to the Prime Minister.

The truth is as always mixed, as there is no doubt that Netanyahu seeks to stay in office as long as possible to avoid trial which has been postponed too many times, precisely because of the functions he has. My impression is that this is true, that it is a legitimate suspicion, but it is also true that his current internal and international weakness has led him to make concessions to pressures that other prime ministers would probably not have accepted, such as, for example, having stopped the invasion of Rafah at the request of the White House, which was later carried out with fewer troops and less force.

If Israel has had a good military performance in Gaza, even better than expected and with a low number of soldiers killed in combat, why then has it not been able to completely defeat and eliminate Hamas? The truth is that, as demonstrated by the Terrible failure of October 7th and the way in which the signs and indications of what Hamas was preparing were ignored by Israeli intelligence, shows that the attention of defense professionals on Gaza had descended to levels that showed a profound mistake in granting it secondary importance, and in thinking - like the US on September 11 - that nothing important was happening, and that for intelligence purposes technological collection would suffice, being able to do without a powerful physical human presence in the form of analysts and information collectors.

Tragic error that was behind the start of the war, but its prolongation has been influenced by hesitations in decision-making and above all, not being able to adequately reconcile military and political requirements, in the sense that the objective of the “elimination” of Hamas should not have been thought of as something exclusively military, but should also have been more directly related to the objective of its disappearance as possible government alternative, since the cooperation of many others was needed, especially in the Arab world, so that the military would be accompanied by something that does not yet exist, which is Israel's official plan for the next day, which should consider an administration or government without the presence of Hamas.

Moreover, international pressure shows that, however much Israel may not want to be seen as imposing definitions that are specific to the Palestinians, the truth is that, as an occupying power, the world holds it responsible for everything that happens in the Strip, whether it wants it or not, as does international law, however biased the United Nations may be or the International Criminal Court may be against Israel, even though it is not a party to the Treaty.

As unfair or exaggerated as it may seem, it is simply the case in reality.

Also influential were those in the governments of countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany and France, all voices that are heard by Israel, and who joined in advising it not to enter Gaza to fight because they were waiting for it, voices that also found an echo, although fortunately in the minority, among civilians and even military or security officials in Israel, which caused delays and hesitations.

There is no doubt that the war was delayed or decisions were made not so much for the military or political aspect, but because of the drama of the hostages who, if they had not been in the hands of Hamas and other terrorist groups, the war would have been conducted differently.

One aspect that also affected the war and its conduct was the issue of international aid, since just as humanitarian aid and fuel from Israel always ended up in the hands of Hamas, this pressure on Israel not only encouraged it but also helped it survive. This example also shows that Coordination between military and civilian commanders was insufficient to destroy not only Hamas's military capabilities to wage war, but also its capabilities to be a government and impose their will on the inhabitants, in addition to using them as human shields, which is sanctioned by the Geneva Protocols that regulate war.

On the positive side, the Israeli strategy of systematically attacking logistics and decapitating not only the leadership, but above all the intermediate level that includes the command of Hamas, Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard troops, has been very effective.

Finally, the main reason and the greatest difficulty does not lie so much in the military as in the fact that eleven months later, the State of Israel through its government lacks a plan for the day after, so the objective of Hamas not causing another war does not depend today so much on the military where Israel has imposed itself, but what has been missing is the political component since the country still does not have a real plan for How to govern the Strip without Hamas.

Nor with whom, although I think I prefer it to be through the collaboration of Sunni Arab countries with a Palestinian Authority that is clearly discredited, with too many signs of weakness, widespread corruption and with Mahmoud Abbas in the presidency, who has not called elections for years, simply because he would be defeated by Hamas.

Israel should limit itself to one security presence already delimited, and on which there is sufficient internal consensus, without administrative decisions other than those imposed on the occupying country by international law.

Israel is militarily a mid-level power, not inferior in its capabilities to important European countries such as Italy or France, and for the same reason, the failure and responsibility for the tragedy of October 7 is not only that of the politicians, but the investigative commission that is appointed should dedicate many harsh words to the arrogance of the military establishment as well as security and intelligence agencies, simply to ensure that it does not happen again, and just as the Yom Kippur War gave rise to a world-class arms industry, now past experience with Western countries should be sufficient argument for Israel to continue advancing in the quality and quantity of the weapons it produces and the need for it to cover as many areas as possible.

At the same time, it is urgent that he tackle as a priority an issue that requires a lot of resources and a national agreement, that of his failures in political and image issues, which has harmed him so much, so that in addition to the progress made on social networks, it is essential that he also have a narrative that contributes to truth prevailing over hypocrisy, and that media coverage is not so one-sided against Israel, as well as the war effort requires greater balance in international organizations, including the judicial ones.

Although it has not achieved its initial objectives, Israel has succeeded And although even Jewish media have given a platform to those who say that Israel has failed, we must insist on the truth that Hamas was defeated militarily, in the most difficult of wars, one where an army is forced to fight in urban terrain, and also in a very populated one.

That is the fundamental thing, as has been said and acknowledged by all important war specialists, who have also said that the fighting has been carried out in compliance with international law, and that contrary to what Hamas has claimed and repeated by the Western press, Israel has done everything possible to avoid civilian casualties., which according to the law of war, the Geneva Conventions, are the responsibility of those who carried out the fighting there using them as human shields, that is, the Hamas leaders themselves who provoked this war.

Coming?

Continue to defend against Iran's proxies, which neither wants nor can confront Israel directly, since, without atomic weapons yet, its oil industry, which is the source of power and money for the Ayatollahs, would be destroyed, so it limits itself to threats that it does not carry out. But also and urgently, Israel should do what it has avoided, a proposal and a political agreement for Gaza a Gaza without Hamas in government and neither Israel, who, where appropriate, should maintain a security presence and limit itself to its obligations under international law.

By the way, the need for security must be recognized, for example, in the case of the border between Gaza and Egypt, since there is no technology that can better replace some presence in the so-called Philadelphia Corridor, since, otherwise, the famous tunnels will once again allow the entry of whatever Hamas wants, not because of the will of Egypt, which wants a border as or more hermetic than Israel, but because of the corruption that made it possible.

The US is certainly the indispensable power, but first it must resolve its internal problems and define what it wants to do, how to participate and what we have all ignored since Obama, that is, the red lines it is not willing to accept or cross.

Israel should then take the next step, which is none other than actively work to achieve a political agreement with the Arab world, which consolidates the dream of peace of the founders of the State, which can only be the materialization of the United Nations resolution of 1948 and which has been so often rejected by the Palestinian leaders.

Israel accepted and did its part in 1948 for the creation of two states, but one next to the other and not one instead of the other, as was wanted at that time by the Arab League and today by Iran. In practice, this means for the Palestinians recognizing that only Israel has offered such a path to two states as it did in Oslo, and self-criticizing how this was derailed by the violence of the intifadas and suicide terrorism.

Whether it happens or not, Israel must take the step of convene an Investigative Commission for October 7 that should retire those responsible, not only political levelbut also of the security agencies, intelligence agencies and the armed forces, in other words, the entire military establishment, even more demanding than its model, the Yom Kippur War Commission of 1973, which ultimately, due to its responsibility, forced the retirement of no less than two founders of the State, Prime Minister Golda Meir and Defense Minister Moshe Dayan, and now it should be no less, but more, since the future Commission should also address the terrible cost caused by excess of confidence or arrogance.

The next or simultaneous step should be the call for elections and as soon as possible, hopefully as soon as possible, a political agreement for a new electoral system, since the existing one has ceased to serve its purpose, causing permanent instability since it does not allow for real majorities.

And in the military?

Keep preparing for Hezbollah in Lebanon, with the aim of complying with the United Nations resolution that requires them to limit themselves to the Litani River, so that the 100.000 residents who have been forced to leave their homes in northern Israel for months can return in peace.

And in the end, by the way, Iran, who has announced so many times that the Islamic Republic exists to destroy the “Zionist entity,” and who is today the puppeteer and organizer of many wars in the Middle East and so many attacks in the world, and where Europe will have to accept, sooner or later, that they are next in this Jihad against the West and the US. They must convince themselves of their role as a superpower, instead of continuing with an appeasement that does not work with those who hate them.

Since 1948, Israel has won every war imposed upon it, but military means alone have not been able to obtain something as elusive as peace. What is missing is to learn more and better from Clausewitz and Sun Tzu, which means combining military science, where he has done very well, with the art of politics where it has not worked well, and it has done even worse in terms of international image.

In any case, the above depends on Israel, since its State managed to survive, consolidate itself and become a source of scientific advances for all humanity, thanks to the fact that it always had a clear idea that everything would go better if it established military superiority, adapting and triumphing in wars, with ever-changing scenarios. Thus a new one has appeared, which leaves many conflicts behind and which is nothing other than the de facto and perhaps de jure alliance with the Sunni Arab world led by Saudi Arabia, the fulfillment of the dream of the founding fathers, the acceptance of Israel in the Middle East, where the unavoidable step remains the same, the creation of a Palestinian State for which what does not yet exist is still needed, Palestinian leaders who want and dare to be partners in peace with a Jewish state as a neighbor.

Source: INFOBAE