By Carmit Valensi
In recent days, dramatic events have occurred in Syria that usually last for years, not just a few days.
Rebel factions affiliated with the central operations room, “al Fatah al Mubin”, led by the jihadist group “Hayat Tahrir al Sham” (former affiliate of Al Qaeda in Syria), and other groups supported by Turkey, launched an offensive against regime forces in northwestern Syria.
For the first time in years, rebel groups have managed to capture territory from Assad's army and its allied militias, including taking control of Syria's second-largest city, Aleppo.
The Syrian regime's recapture of Aleppo in December 2016 had marked the beginning of its victory in the war.
Yesterday, rebels managed to seize parts of the city of Hama, but this morning, the Syrian regime and its allies seemed to have prevented their complete conquest.
The timing is not coincidental.
The attack caught the “Axis of Resistance” at a critical moment of weakness.
Following prolonged fighting with Israel, in particular following the recent Operation Northern Arrows, a significant part of Hezbollah forces and other Shiite militias from Syria have relocated to Lebanon, while others have been neutralized.
Iran is preoccupied with repairing Hezbollah's setbacks, which limit its ability to send fighters to help the Syrian president.
Moreover, Russia's focus on Ukraine does not bode well for Assad's position.
Beyond the operational aspect, there is a psychological dimension: the rebels in Syria have broken the barrier of fear against the “Axis of Resistance”, and the perception of their invincible power has been shattered.
Türkiye is likely behind the offensive.
Rebels in Idlib have long received Turkish economic and military support.
This alliance gives Ankara influence over Syrian territory and serves as a bargaining chip against the regime.
For years, Turkey has sought reconciliation with Assad, in part to neutralize the Kurdish threat in the northeast and facilitate the return of millions of refugees currently in Turkey.
From Turkey's perspective, the current operation could put pressure on Assad to accept its terms of agreement or at least curb the Russian regime's recent wave of attacks.
In short, this is encouraging news for Assad's opponents and the "Axis of Resistance", which has suffered severe blows in several areas, now also in Syria.
However, the country's internal instability could open the door to a greater Iranian military presence.
Moreover, it is important to note that these are not the secular and pragmatic rebels who once formed the “Free Syrian Army,” but rather extremist groups with a religious jihadist ideology, perhaps more moderate than Al Qaeda, but not necessarily friendly to Israel.
The collapse of the Assad regime could create a chaotic environment and fertile ground for the emergence of new military threats.
Depending on developments, Israel may have to decide whether to intervene in Syria to increase its gains against the “Axis of Resistance” or at least neutralize immediate threats to its security interests.
For now, it is advisable to be patient.
The next few days will be crucial in determining whether this is a limited campaign or a broader operation, which could involve other opposition groups that could, for the first time in almost a decade, threaten the survival of the Assad regime.
Source: INSS – The Institute for National Security Studies