By Yoni Ben Menachem
• Israel's political leaders are deeply concerned about Egypt's violations of the peace agreement in the Sinai Peninsula and intend to address the issue with the Trump Administration.
• Senior security officials warn that, despite the peace treaty, Egypt has a vested interest in weakening Israel militarily and politically.
• Egypt has accustomed Israel over the past years to treaty violations in the Sinai, and this must end.
Egypt's violations of the peace agreement with Israel are causing great alarm in Israeli political and security circles.
Israeli intelligence has identified multiple violations of the treaty. According to security sources, Egypt has expanded its military airfields in Sinai, specifically in the areas of Refidim and El Arish, has built new bunkers and anti-tank obstacles and has established new ammunition and fuel depots. In addition, seven tunnels have been built under the Suez Canal: four in the Ismailia area and three in Port Said.
Reports also indicate that Egypt has expanded major transportation routes in the Sinai into highways, despite the region’s sparse population. While Israel allowed some of these violations to aid the Egyptian military’s fight against Islamic State (ISIS) affiliates in the Sinai, security officials stress that Israel always granted such approvals retroactively to avoid diplomatic confrontations with Egypt. However, according to their assessments, Egypt maintains four times as many military forces in the Sinai as the peace treaty allows.
Since assuming power in 2014, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has been modernizing Egypt's military forces (on land, sea and air), investing heavily with the assistance of the US military aid package, which amounts to $1.500 billion annually.
In addition, the Egyptian army continues to conduct exercises simulating combat scenarios against Israel.
Dr. Yechiel Leiter, Israel's new ambassador to the United States, was the first official figure to publicly address Egypt's unprecedented military buildup and accuse it of violating the peace treaty.
Political sources believe he made his comments openly after the Trump administration took office, as Israel seeks US intervention to prevent further violations of the treaty, especially in light of tense relations between Israel and Egypt since the war in Gaza began.
Late last month, before Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with US President Donald Trump, Leiter accused Egypt of “serious violations” of the peace deal in a meeting with Jewish organisations.
He said Jerusalem would soon raise its concerns about Egypt’s military expansion. “Bases are being built that can only be used for offensive operations and offensive weapons,” Leiter said. “This is a clear violation. We turned a blind eye for a long time, but this continues. This is an issue that we will soon put on the table and strongly emphasize.”
Senior security officials assess that despite tensions between Israel and Egypt, al-Sisi has no current interest in waging war against Israel or violating the peace treaty, particularly while Trump is president.
However, they do not rule out the possibility that, in an extreme scenario, Sisi could deploy large military forces in the Sinai to threaten Israel.
An urgent question for Israeli intelligence is why the Egyptian military is investing so much in military fortifications and opening new routes for the rapid deployment of large forces in the Sinai, especially after having eliminated the local ISIS affiliate, while Egypt's main potential adversaries are Ethiopia and Libya.
Why does the Egyptian army continue to carry out maneuvers simulating battles against Israel Defense Forces (IDF) troops?
Senior political sources argue that Israel must abandon the erroneous assumptions that led to the intelligence failure of October 7, 2023, and that it is time to “slaughter sacred cows” and adopt new ways of thinking.
They stress the urgent need to investigate whether Egyptian intelligence had advance knowledge of Hamas's surprise attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, but failed to warn the Hebrew state.
Senior security officials say that, despite the peace agreement, Egypt has a clear interest in weakening Israel’s military and political power. Egypt seeks to increase Israel’s dependence on Cairo as a mediator with Hamas in order to obtain political and economic concessions, particularly with regard to its influence over the US administration. The reason for this is that Egypt perceives that “the road to Washington passes through Jerusalem.”
According to security officials, Egypt has accustomed Israel to treaty violations in Sinai over the past few years, and this must end. A senior political figure believes that Israel's leaders will take the matter to the Trump administration to resolve it diplomatically and restore the status quo. He stressed that Israel has a strategic interest in preserving the peace agreement with Egypt and reducing tensions between the two countries.
Source: The Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs