The outcome of the US election has a major influence on the Russian government due to tensions between the two countries in the context of the war in Ukraine.
The question asked to Vladimir Putin in September about the american elections It prompted a wry smile and a raised eyebrow from the Russian president.
When asked if he preferred Donald Trump and Kamala HarrisPutin surprised listeners with his mocking response, which also included a gentle dig at the president. Joe Biden.
“Our ‘favorite,’ if you can call it that, was the current president, Biden,” he told the audience at an economic forum in the Far Eastern port of Vladivostok.
“But he dropped out of the race, and recommended all his supporters to back Harris. Well, here's what we're going to do: We will support her"He said sarcastically, citing his "expressive and contagious laugh" that shows that "he is doing well."
The Kremlin has a lot at stake in Tuesday's election, and despite Putin's noncommittal and somewhat mocking response, it seemed to encapsulate the Russian view that there is a choice between two unattractive possibilities.
Analysts say neither side offers much hope of improving relations that have hit their lowest point since the Cold War.
Harris, the current vice president, has taken a hard line against Russia, while Trump is known for his admiration for Putin. Still, at the September meeting, Putin complained that when Trump was in office, there were “so many restrictions and sanctions against Russia that no other president has introduced before him.”
Timothy Colton of the Harvard Academy for International and Area Studies said Kremlin leaders are “generally convinced that nothing good is going to come out of the election from Russia’s perspective.”
But he added that overall, Trump “is probably their preference; he’s more of a known quantity.”
What will happen to aid to Ukraine?
Harris is considered likely to continue with the massive military and economic support from the Biden administration to Ukraine, as the Russian invasion approaches its third year.
Trump has boasted that his relationship with Putin and respect for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky are so strong that he could Negotiate an end to the war “within 24 hours”He has declined to detail his strategy, but his recent comments criticizing sanctions in general suggest he may lift those on Russia as an incentive to help resolve the conflict.
During the debate, Trump twice refused to directly answer whether he wanted Ukraine to win the war, while Harris praised Western support for kyiv and urged its continued support.
“Otherwise, Putin would be sitting in kyiv with his eyes set on the rest of Europe, starting with Poland,” he said.
Senator JD Vance, Trump's running mate, has mentioned proposals that might suggest Trump's thinking: that Ukraine demilitarize Russian-occupied territory and agree to permanent neutrality. Those terms would be anathema to kyiv, but Trump has shown little sympathy for Ukraine, saying that Zelensky “should never have let that war start.”
Harris has not specified how her stance would differ from Biden's. The United States has provided Ukraine with more than $59.500 billion in arms and assistance since Russia invaded in 2022. She has previously said it would be foolish to risk the global alliances the US has built and condemned Putin’s “brutality.”
A Harris victory “likely promises continued U.S. support, provided the administration can maintain congressional backing,” the International Crisis Group said in a commentary, though it said she might seek an end to the fighting more actively than Biden. Growing congressional animus toward large aid disbursements to Ukraine could hamper or alter her strategy.
How will the US approach Russia on human rights?
Harris has directly confronted Russia on these issues, most notably in the case of the death in prison of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. She was among the first foreign leaders to comment on his death, calling it “yet another example of Putin’s brutality.”
Trump postponed comments for days and then failed to link Putin to the matter. He compared Navalny’s punishment to his own fraud prosecution, calling his case “a Navalny form.”
Trump has called for a bill declaring there are only two genders and pledged to keep transgender women out of women’s sports – positions that parallel how Russia under Putin has rolled back LGBTQ+ rights and praised “traditional values”.
His characterization of Democrats and their rivals as “the enemy within"It does not differ much in spirit from the accelerated suppression of the opposition in Russia.
How will NATO be affected?
Trump has clashed with other members of the alliance NATO, demanding that they meet agreed spending levels for their militaries in their national budgets. He said that as president, he warned leaders that not only would he refuse to defend nations that failed to meet those targets, but that Russia could “do whatever it wanted” to those countries.
Trump has also questioned the NATO Charter's mutual defense clause, asking in an interview why the United States should be obliged to defend the "very aggressive people" of NATO member Montenegro.
Harris says the U.S. commitment to NATO is “ironclad.” She has not commented on whether she supports Ukraine becoming a member of the alliance.
What about arms control agreements with Russia?
Putin has repeatedly brandished the nuclear sword to dissuade the West from supporting Ukraine.
The last remaining nuclear arms control treaty between Moscow and Washington, the New START, will expire in 2026, a year after the new administration takes office, and its prospects are problematic.
Biden quickly renewed the treaty upon taking office, and Harris would be expected to continue that support for the pact limiting the number of intercontinental nuclear missile launchers.
Russia has suspended its participation in 2023 - although it did not withdraw - and the US retaliated with measures that included stopping the exchange of information on the location and status of the missiles.
Trump, although he has warned of the threat of “nuclear warming,” took steps during his tenure to dismantle the arms control regime, including withdrawing from the INF Treaty on intermediate-range nuclear weapons – which banned ground-based nuclear and conventional missiles with a range of 500–5.500 kilometres (310–3.410 miles).
During his term, Trump advocated for a new nuclear pact that would include both Russia and China.
With AP information