Ukraine is running out of time

The announced (and almost certain) arrival of Donald Trump to the White House and the confirmed Russian advances on the battlefield, with notable territorial conquests, suggest a change in the Ukrainian strategy to face the war and foreseeable changes on the international scene that force Ukraine to accept the realities on the ground, that is, their defeat. Ukraine is running out of time.

by Ricardo Angoso

There are just a few months left until the crucial North American presidential elections are held, in which, according to all polls, the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, could win easily. Trump's arrival at the White House would surely imply a radical shift in North American foreign policy. Apart from being a firm defender of the most radical policies in Israel regarding the conflict with the Palestinians, when it comes to Ukraine there will also be changes and the closeness, not to say sympathy, of Trump with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, does not It is something unknown or new. Trump could force the Ukrainians into negotiations, in which they will participate at a clear disadvantage compared to Russia.

Although the United States and other Western powers have now allowed Ukraine to attack Russia with weapons sent by the West to Russia from its territory, there is no doubt that the latest Russian advances on the battlefield, especially around Kharkiv, have led several countries to accelerate their arms shipments to Ukraine. The situation around Kharkiv is critical.

Although U.S. officials insist there was no formal ban, they have long made clear that they believe the use of U.S. weapons to attack targets inside Russia could provoke an escalation by Moscow, something the Russian President Vladimir Putin Has promised. Russia's dialectical escalation against the West in these two and a half years of war has never subsided, including nuclear threats, and tension on the periphery of this country, especially in the Baltic countries, Poland, Georgia and Moldova, is very high. . As Russia intensifies its attacks in Ukraine, it is also carrying out destabilizing actions in those countries, where Russian agents have even been detained to provoke alleged conspiracies, as has happened in Moldova.

However, apart from these considerations and this new Russian escalation, the war is clearly stagnant and Ukraine has gone from being in an offensive phase, occupying small territories and villages of no strategic importance, to a defensive one, given the strong concentration of Russian forces. around Kharkiv. After the proven failure of the Ukrainian offensive, which did not achieve the desired objectives or seize important cities and territories from the Russian forces, Ukraine will no longer be able to carry out large strategic operations, but will have to limit itself to surviving and preventing the Russians from continuing. advancing in their territory.

According to the latest report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia continues to advance territorially, specifically near Liptsi (Kharkov), Avdivka (Donetsk) and on the border between Donetsk and the Zaporizhia region. The ISW also reports Ukrainian progress within Vovchansk (Kharkov), where Kiev troops would be recovering territory occupied by Russia in recent weeks.

According to Russian sources, in the last month of May 28 Ukrainian towns have been conquered by Russian forces and military pressure continues on Kharkiv, where both parties concentrate large forces. The Russians have conquered 250 square kilometers to add to their vast territory already conquered and are located less than thirty kilometers from Kharkiv. The stagnation of the war, when Ukraine only has a few months left before Trump is expected to arrive at the White House, puts the Ukrainians in an absolutely unfavorable position, while allowing Russia to gain time and consolidate its territorial positions in the face of negotiations. with kyiv, something that sooner or later will have to happen. For now, Russia maintains almost 20% of Ukrainian territory under its control, a very strong position in the face of direct dialogue with kyiv.

Apart from these already adverse circumstances for the Ukrainians, summer is coming and the difficulties for the Russian forces will be less to continue their offensive in Ukraine, since for now Russia shows great strength in men, weapons and artillery pieces. , something that Ukrainian forces have lacked until now due to the paralysis in Western aid, especially due to the reluctance of the United States, where Republicans are opposed to continuing to support Kiev, and a lower flow of aid from from many Western countries.

“The long time it took for Europeans and Americans who support Ukraine to send aid led to Russia having a lot of time to mobilize its own troops, train them, equip them and put its industry on a war footing. And that is really something that is being felt this spring more than ever,” said Simon Schlegel, senior analyst for Ukraine at the International Crisis Group in a collaboration for the Colombian newspaper El Tiempo.

SANCTIONS THAT DO NOT WORK AND RUSSIA'S EXTERNAL STRENGTH

When more than two years have passed since the war began, the economic impact of the sanctions has been very relative and they have not achieved the political objective they pursued, which was to pressure Russia to seek a negotiated solution to its conflict with Ukraine. Apart from the depreciation of the ruble against the dollar, the sanctions have been lessened by greater commercial exchange with countries such as China, Iran, Turkey - which never really observed the sanctions -, North Korea and other countries that have not respected them. , both in Asia, Europe and Latin America.

Russia still maintains a high level of exchanges, not only on a commercial and economic level, with numerous countries around the world and the war against Ukraine has had a relative impact on its international relations. Apart from the countries already mentioned that have refused to join the sanctions against Moscow and that secretly support the Russians, in many parts of the world, such as Latin America, Russia has numerous supports, such as Brazil, Bolivia, Colombia, Mexico - even playing with well-calculated ambiguity - Cuba, Nicaragua, Honduras and Venezuela, countries that have not joined the boycott and international sanctions launched by the West.

The situation in Asia is not better, since the two great continental powers, China and India, have not supported the West either and maintain their relations with Russia intact at all levels, including purchases of weapons, oil and gas at low prices and with guarantees. preferential. The periphery of Central Asia has not joined the Western blockade either and maintains good commercial and economic relations with Russia, in the same way that Iran and North Korea supply weapons, drones and other military equipment to the Russians.

DIVISIONS IN EUROPE REGARDING THE CONFLICT

With regard to Europe, the tone of some foreign ministries, such as the French one, is quite surprising, as they are no longer talking about a victory for Ukraine, but rather about not letting Russia win the war, and that are beginning to handle the hypothesis of new scenarios. geostrategic in the event that Trump wins the race to the White House. Trump has even threatened to leave NATO, which would be a catastrophe for Europe, if the Europeans do not increase their defense spending significantly, a demand that was very present throughout his mandate and in the conflictive summits of the Atlantic Alliance when he was President of the United States.

Already within the European Union (EU), there are more and more voices that dissent from Western aid to Ukraine, such as Hungary, which even blocks it, Slovakia and Slovenia - Putin's three friends in the club European -, and in NATO there are countries like Turkey that continue to maintain an absolutely normal level of dialogue with Russia without the war in Ukraine having affected their relations in the slightest. In the case of Russian aggression against the Baltic countries (Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia) or Moldova, would these countries do something to confront Russia? There are serious doubts about whether this question could be answered affirmatively and, for this reason, concern is spreading in these countries and they are preparing, perhaps, for a future war.

To conclude, there is no doubt that the situation for Ukraine is much more difficult than two and a half years ago, when it was attacked and the Ukrainians stopped the Russian forces at the gates of kyiv, and Russia is showing greater strength, capacity for resistance and a much higher offensive and tactical level than then, while the Western bloc begins to show cracks in what until just a few weeks ago was a monolithic and homogeneous group. Then, if Trump's victory is confirmed, the worst scenario for the Ukrainians, it is more than certain that the United States will press for a negotiated solution at a negotiating table, in which Ukraine, almost in all probability, would be forced to hand over territories to the Russians. With past experience, Russia has never handed over conquered territories to the countries from which it took them, such as Georgia and Moldova, and Putin will never hand over Crimea, Donest, or Donbas, conquered by blood and fire to Ukraine.