By Gallia Lindenstrauss
The decision to arrest Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and revoke his academic degree, effectively barring him from running in future presidential elections in Türkiye, constitutes an abuse of government power.
Stripping Istanbul's mayor of the ability to continue in office and run in national elections—while he is the leading candidate in the presidential polls—marks another low point in Turkey's slide toward autocratic rule.
İmamoğlu, who was elected to his first term as mayor of Istanbul in 2019 after a successful campaign under the slogan “Everything will be fine,” has now been tainted by allegations of corruption and collaboration with the Kurdish underground.
The timing of this decision can be explained by the fact that he was soon expected to be nominated as the presidential candidate of the main opposition party, the Republican People's Party (CHP), and by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's desire to eliminate the threat he poses at an early stage of his domestic political career.
İmamoğlu's arrest sparked a wave of protests across Türkiye and caused a sharp drop in the value of the Turkish lira, indicating that this was not an easy move for the government.
Therefore, a deeper explanation is required, beyond the simple question of time.
One explanation suggests that Erdoğan does not believe the long-term cost of this action is high.
He assumes he can suppress protests by declaring curfews and shutting down social media.
Furthermore, it is based on the assumption that, on the international stage, beyond symbolic condemnations, Turkey will remain a coveted partner for the West, regardless of the level of domestic repression.
This perspective is based in part on the “Trump effect” and the upheaval that Europe has experienced.
Another explanation focuses on Erdoğan's insecurity in light of the unflattering poll results for him and his party.
In theory, following Türkiye's achievements in Syria, its success in combating the Kurdish underground, and the Kurdish leader's call to lay down arms, Erdoğan's position should have been strengthened.
However, the fact that he is not content with these achievements and is instead taking extreme measures to weaken the opposition reflects poor judgment, which could have dangerous consequences, including for Turkey's foreign relations.
Source: INSS – The Institute for National Security Studies