Turkey's new threat to Israel

By Yoni Ben Menachem

• El establishment The Israeli security establishment is increasingly concerned about developments in Syria and the possibility of Turkey taking over, which could pose a significant new threat to Israel.

• Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is positioning jihadist Islam as a vehicle for political Islam, with the aim of establishing his influence over Syria.

• Türkiye’s main objective in Syria is the eradication of the Kurdish presence.
Growing Turkish influence in Syria: a national security concern

Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime, senior Israeli security officials have expressed alarm at Türkiye's increasing involvement in the region.

According to the Jacob Nagel Committee report on Israel’s defense budget, published on January 6, 2025, Turkey’s ambitions to “restore the Ottoman crown to its former glory” present a pressing security challenge. The report highlights the possibility that the changing Syrian landscape will create new threats to Israel. It highlights the possibility that an extremist Syrian regime with an anti-Israel ideology will replace the Assad government.

This scenario, the report warns, could be even more dangerous than the Iranian threat, given Syria's geographical proximity and strategic importance. Turkey's military presence and political ambitions in Syria could destabilise the region and create direct security challenges for Israel.

The report warns of a scenario in which Türkiye would sponsor Syrian forces hostile to Israel, effectively extending its influence and increasing regional instability.

Erdogan’s Ottoman aspirations and the Syrian connection

President Erdogan's rhetoric has fueled concerns about his intentions in Syria. Speaking at the eighth conference of his Justice and Development PartyErdogan noted: “If the region had not been divided after World War I, cities such as Aleppo, Sham, Hama and Homs would still be part of Türkiye.”

Turkish opposition sources suggest that Erdogan's policies aim to revive the Ottoman Caliphate through strategic control over Syria.

Reports in the Turkish press indicate plans to establish military bases in Syria equipped with air defense systems, apparently to protect against Israeli air strikes.

Erdogan has also pledged support for Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, Syria's new de facto ruler, by providing him with weapons and assistance in building a Syrian army to replace forces weakened by Israeli strikes.

Abu Muhammad al Jolani: Erdogan’s “secret weapon”

Western intelligence sources say Türkiye played a major role in toppling the Assad regime.

Turkish support for al-Jolani-led Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has been instrumental in reshaping Syria’s power dynamics. Since 2017, Turkey has armed and supported these groups, facilitated the movement of jihadist fighters into Syria, and worked to transform al-Jolani’s group from a jihadist organization into a political entity aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood.

Security officials in Israel describe al-Jolani's transformation as a strategy by Erdogan to exert control over Syria.

Al Jolani, who renamed himself Ahmed al Sharaa, now leads what he describes as a transitional government, emphasizing the rule of law, constitutional governance and free elections modeled on Turkey's political system.

Challenges to Muslim Brotherhood governance in Syria

The Assad regime's five-decade secular governance stands in stark contrast to the ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood.

The Brotherhood’s influence under al-Kholani has already provoked opposition among Syrians, particularly over efforts to introduce Sharia law in schools and public life. Popular resistance to these changes echoes the Brotherhood’s failures in Tunisia and Egypt, where economic problems and public opposition led to its downfall.

While Erdogan's ambitions for Syria remain ambitious, the Brotherhood's long-term success is far from guaranteed.

Having experienced freedom after the Assad dictatorship, Syrians may resist the transition to another form of authoritarian rule under Islamic law.

The threat Turkey poses to Israel

The Turkish military, one of the largest and most formidable in the Middle East, represents a significant challenge to Israel's security. One of its strongest branches is the Turkish Navy. The Turkish military is made up of 425.000 active personnel and another 380.000 reservists. According to security sources, Turkey's growing influence in Syria as a dominant force requires serious consideration of its military capabilities.

Pro-Turkish militias in Syria, such as the Syrian National Army (SNA), pose a potential threat to Israel, particularly along the Syrian-Israeli border. President Erdogan could also use groups such as HTS, led by al-Jolani, against Israel. Al-Jolani, known for his incendiary rhetoric, once declared: “With God’s help, we will not only reach Damascus; Jerusalem is waiting for us.”

Erdogan himself has made direct threats. On July 28, 2024, at a conference of the Justice and Development Party, declared: “Just as we entered Karabakh and Libya, we will do the same with Israel.”
Western intelligence sources suggest Erdogan harbours ambitions to revive the Ottoman Empire, seeking to position himself as a modern-day sultan or caliph overseeing Sunni forces in the Middle East, including Jerusalem, which was once part of the Ottoman Empire.

Türkiye's policy towards the Kurds in Syria

Türkiye's main objective in Syria is the eradication of the Kurdish presence.

US sources report that Turkey has amassed significant military forces along its border with Syria, potentially preparing for an invasion of northeastern Syria, home of the Syrian Kurds.

Kurds in this region, who played a critical role in the fight against the Islamic State (ISIS), are worried about a renewed Turkish offensive. Their fears are heightened by the possibility of a US withdrawal of the 2.000 American troops currently providing air and intelligence support.

This concern stems from a similar situation in 2019, when US forces withdrew, allowing Turkey to launch a cross-border operation.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated on December 16, 2024 that “the elimination of Kurds in Syria is a strategic goal of Türkiye.”

A Turkish newspaper, Hurriyet, reported on December 17, 2024 that Ankara has outlined a four-step strategy to neutralize the Kurdish presence in Syria by targeting the “Kurdish Defense Units,” which Turkey associates with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), designated a terrorist organization in Türkiye.

The plan includes:

1. The withdrawal of Kurdish fighters from Europe and Iraq who are currently in Syria.

2. The withdrawal of Kurdish commanders from Syria.

3. Disarmament of Kurdish fighters and their reintegration into civilian life.

4. Ensure Kurdish representation in a future Syrian government.

Türkiye's overall strategy is to prevent the establishment of a Kurdish-controlled entity in northern Syria, which it considers a terrorist threat.

This plan may involve a military incursion into Syrian territory to create a 900-kilometer buffer zone along the Turkish-Syrian border, aimed at thwarting any Kurdish infiltration into Turkish territory.

At the same time, Turkish intelligence is cracking down on the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in the country, arresting its leaders and pressuring Abdullah Öcalan, the party's founder, to disband the organization.

Conclusion

Turkey’s growing influence in Syria, driven by Erdogan’s vision of restoring Ottoman glory, poses a complex challenge for the security of Israel and the broader Middle East. While Turkey’s role in reshaping Syria’s political and military landscape continues to develop, the resilience of the Syrian people and their resistance to the Islamist regime may yet determine the outcome of Erdogan’s ambitions.

Source: Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs