By Rémi Daniel
One month into Donald Trump's return to the White House, several world leaders are already emerging as beneficiaries of his political approach, including Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
First, Trump does not promote liberal values as [Joe] Biden did, nor does he intend to pressure Ankara to protect democracy in Türkiye.
Erdoğan seems to have already internalized this.
In recent weeks there has been a notable escalation in the repression of the Turkish opposition.
The Trump-driven tectonic shifts in the global system, and Europe's growing realization that it cannot rely on American security support, have strengthened Turkey's position, along with that of its president.
The Turkish army, the largest in the region, and Turkey's defence industry, in which Ankara has invested heavily in recent years, are now seen by Europeans as crucial assets to boost their military strength.
As a result, in a matter of weeks, Türkiye has become an essential partner for European countries.
The change in Europe's attitude towards Türkiye is reflected in bilateral visits and statements that underline the opening of a new chapter in Turkish-European relations.
Although there is still mistrust between the two sides and many challenges may hinder cooperation between Türkiye and the European Union, Europe has in the past demonstrated a willingness to reach agreements for the sake of realpolitik.
In 2016, the European Union signed a deal with Ankara in which Turkey agreed to prevent refugees from crossing into Europe in exchange for financial aid, despite European reservations about Turkey's political situation and Erdoğan's assertive foreign policy.
In 2025, when Europe faces a deeper security crisis, it is likely to again give up some of its demands and values in order to reach deals with Erdoğan.
The rise in Turkey's importance to Europeans and the strengthening of Erdoğan's position, both domestically and internationally, come at a time when relations between Turkey and Israel are in crisis.
The points of friction between the two countries have increased, partly due to the situation in Syria.
This reality poses a challenge for Jerusalem and highlights the need to understand the complex interaction between the different spheres.
Ironically, Trump, considered a friend of Israel, indirectly creates a security challenge for Israel in the form of a stronger Erdogan.
Source: INSS – The Institute for National Security Studies