By Yoni Ben Menachem
President Donald Trump's proposal to relocate some 1,5 million Gazans to Egypt and Jordan has triggered a political earthquake in the Arab world.
Leaders across the region are still grappling with its implications, looking for ways to mitigate its impact or resist it altogether, fearing potential repercussions from the United States. Implementing Trump’s Gaza migration plan is a major challenge, and the Arab world is watching closely to see if he can persuade the leaders of Egypt and Jordan to support his plan.
According to US officials familiar with the matter, Trump is serious about his proposal: it is not a theoretical suggestion. Trump now faces a crucial test that will determine how the Arab world perceives him. According to Arab commentators and experts, his leadership is being tested. If he does not show determination, he could undermine his influence in the region.
During and after his White House meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on February 4, 2025, Trump revealed new details about his plans for Gaza. He announced that “the U.S. will take control of Gaza, raze it, and clear out the bombs and destroyed homes.”
He said that “the Palestinians have no choice but to leave, and [Gaza] will become an international zone.”
Trump stressed that “the Palestinian Authority will have a hard time controlling Gaza” and, regarding the two-state solution, he said: “We need to learn from history: what has not worked for decades will never work.”
Egypt’s and Jordan’s leaders, President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and King Abdullah II respectively, are also in a precarious situation. They face intense scrutiny from their citizens and must decide whether to resist Trump’s plan or accept American pressure. Will they cave in to Trump or stand firm?
To counter the proposal, al-Sisi has already organised mass protests in the Egyptian city of Rafah, a strategic move aimed at expressing his opposition. Arab governments often employ such tactics to generate public sentiment against policies they oppose.
However, fragile political landscapes in Egypt and Jordan could render these protests passive. The Muslim Brotherhood, a powerful opposition movement, organised large-scale demonstrations in Cairo and Amman over the weekend.
Security officials predict that if widespread protests break out, Arab governments will suppress them while also organizing demonstrations that align with their interests.
Behind closed doors, al-Sisi and Abdullah are said to be in favour of defeating Hamas in both Gaza and the West Bank. Hamas, an affiliate of the Muslim Brotherhood, poses a direct threat to their rule, just as the Brotherhood did during the overthrow of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in 2011. They see the current war in Gaza as an opportunity to weaken the movement.
Any perception of Hamas victory would embolden Islamist opposition groups and threaten the stability of their regimes. Publicly, however, both leaders are maintaining a delicate balance. They must remain resilient to Trump's plan to avoid backlash at home and protect their international standing.
It is not inconceivable that they may have privately communicated their conditional support for the proposal, provided Trump exerted enough pressure to make it appear as though they had no choice but to comply.
On February 1, 2025, al-Sisi convened a conference in Cairo with leaders of five Arab nations and the secretary-general of the Arab League. The summit concluded with a formal rejection of Trump’s immigration plan, accompanied by rhetorically charged statements. However, few in the region take the conference’s results or statements seriously.
Trump sees his proposal as a real estate opportunity, arguing that it will not only improve the living conditions of Palestinians in Gaza but also bolster Israel's national security and economic prospects. He envisions Egyptian companies playing a role in rebuilding Gaza. Trump sees Gaza as an area with economic potential, with an attractive location for commercial and real estate projects.
The next few weeks will be a decisive moment for Trump's leadership. He will welcome Abdullah to the White House, followed by al-Sisi, to persuade them to accept his plan.
He has promised to visit Israel and Gaza, and the Arab world is watching closely to see if he can turn his plan into reality. His ability to implement it will be a crucial test of his resolve.