By Michael Kobe
Yahya Sinwar, leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, was chosen to head its political bureau, essentially becoming the leader of the entire organization, replacing Ismail Haniyeh, who was eliminated in Tehran last week.
His election has been completely unexpected and his name did not appear in the list of names and speculations about Haniyeh's replacement.
His election is a testament to his status and influence in the organization and to the Gaza Strip's position as Hamas' center of gravity.
It is not clear how the selection process was carried out and whether the election was made by the Shura Council, according to the Hamas method, and if so, how and where, but the selection is official and has been officially announced. by the organization.
Beyond that, it's not entirely clear how Sinwar will run the organization when he's in hiding and constantly on the run from Israel Defense Forces (IDF) troops pursuing him.
At the same time, his appointment as leader of the organization, along with his role as head of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, makes him the mover and shaker, the main and perhaps the only source of authority in the organization as far as to the hostage negotiations.
His influence in this matter was also prominent before, and he tended to underestimate Ismail Haniyeh; but now that Sinwar does not face any obstacle or disturbance, and if the rumors or assessments about the hard line that Haniyeh demonstrated are really true, now that the obstacle has disappeared; it can be assumed that Sinwar could more easily promote an agreement.
Sinwar's election to the position can be interpreted as an expression of recognition and appreciation for the centrality of the Gaza Strip, for leading the armed resistance and the high price he has paid.
At the same time, Sinwar's election is also an expression of his status and an important message from Hamas's perspective to the Palestinians, Israel and everyone else regarding its resilience and functional continuity.
Assuming Sinwar attempts to establish his position as leader of the organization and remove any obstacles or candidates in preparation for the Hamas leadership elections expected in 2025, it is likely that he will want to close a deal and end the war with guarantees for his personal security.
This would allow him to vigorously assume the position of leading Hamas.
Therefore, we may have a chance to end the war in the Gaza Strip with a hostage deal that is more reasonable from Israel's perspective.
There is even the possibility that Sinwar will leave Gaza, which he may present not as an escape but rather as an essential necessity to fulfill his responsibility and commitment as leader of Hamas, something he cannot do from within the Gaza Strip.
If the Egyptians have contributed to this movement behind the scenes thanks to their proximity to Sinwar and their preference for them over the Qataris, it is possible that Egypt could lead to the realization of this scenario.
However, Sinwar's election does not necessarily end the well-known rivalries within the organization between supporters of Qatar (Khaled Mashal) and supporters of Egypt (Sinwar), as well as between the leaders of Gaza and the West Bank, and between the own individuals.
However, there is no doubt that this election has solidified Sinwar's seniority, leadership and authority.
The result also attests to Sinwar's determination and political and leadership skills, elevating his status and that of the organization far beyond the organization itself.
This move also positions Sinwar as a candidate for Palestinian leadership, and the challenge he presents to Abu Mazen [Mahmoud Abbas], to the leadership of Fatah and the Palestinian Authority is likely to surpass even that posed by Ismail Haniyeh.
And a final note: like many other researchers and experts who have worked with Hamas for years, I did not imagine this scenario in which Sinwar would be chosen for this position.
This serves as another testament to the limitations of our imaginations as researchers and underlines the eternal element of surprise in any form, and as a necessary lesson in modesty in research.
Source: INSS – The Institute for National Security Studies