By Danny Citrinowicz
In retrospect, the eliminations of senior Hezbollah figures and Quds Force leaders in Lebanon and Syria dramatically undermined the ability of Iran’s Axis of Resistance to assist the Syrian Army, likely sealing the fate of the Assad regime.
Without Assad and with a weakened Hezbollah, Iran will be forced to recalculate its strategy and possibly even reconsider its nuclear approach to “compensate” for the severe blow to its axis.
The series of events in recent months, in particular the severe blow suffered by Hezbollah at the hands of Israel and the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime, threaten to dismantle the defense system that Qasem Soleimani so successfully built for Tehran.
Soleimani essentially established the “Axis of Resistance,” which depended on Iran’s ability to advance its interests in the Middle East, deter Israel and the United States from acting against Tehran, and keep the war away from Iran’s borders without paying a significant price for achieving these goals.
Even if Tehran seeks to continue arming its proxies [representatives], their ability to control them has been dramatically eroded.
Furthermore, rebuilding Hezbollah's capabilities without Assad is highly questionable.
Iran is therefore likely to try to finalize its deal with Russia on the Sukhoi Su-35 aircraft, rebuild its air defense capabilities (which took a severe hit from Israeli strikes), and renew its missile production to further threaten Israel.
The biggest question mark concerns Iran's nuclear program.
Tehran could theoretically enrich uranium to a weapons-grade level of 90% “as soon as tomorrow” and attempt to build a nuclear facility within months.
This could theoretically “offset” the damage to the axis and significantly strengthen Iran’s deterrence.
Senior regime officials (current and former) have therefore repeatedly stressed the need to reconsider Tehran's nuclear strategy.
However, such a move without Hezbollah's protective umbrella, combined with Israel's demonstrated ability to attack Iran and President Trump's presence in the White House, could pose a direct threat to the Tehran regime.
This exacerbates the dilemma facing Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, to an unprecedented level.
It is certainly too early to write off Iran or the other elements of the axis, but it is doubtful that their situation has been as dire since Qasem Soleimani conceived the idea of the Axis of Resistance.
This reality is a “game changer” and significantly weakens Iran’s influence in the Middle East for at least the next few years.
Source: INSS – The Institute for National Security Studies