By Ilan Zalayat and Yoel Guzansky
The change of leadership in Syria opens a new scenario of regional interest and competition, in which Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) may once again find themselves in rivalry with Turkey and Qatar and in competition with each other.
The Saudis and Emiratis reluctantly accept Ahmed al-Sharaa's government, just as they recently accepted the Assad regime.
But while Riyadh has shown pragmatism in its relations with the new regime (and was the first destination of the new Syrian foreign minister's foreign visit), Abu Dhabi appears more apprehensive about its direction.
The success of the new Syrian regime and the stabilization of the country are important to them, in part because they will make it difficult for Iran to reestablish its presence in Syria.
At the same time, they seek to prevent Syria from becoming part of an Islamic axis led by Turkey and Qatar, which could undermine its stability and jeopardize its status.
Senior adviser to UAE President Anwar Gargash has openly expressed Abu Dhabi's concern over the new rulers' affiliation with al-Qaeda, saying the Middle East has experienced the "brutality" of those Islamist forces.
The Saudis and Emiratis have experience in dealing with Islamist forces in Syria, Libya, Yemen and Sudan.
For now, however, the main sphere of its influence remains economic: the reconstruction of war-ravaged Syria is estimated to cost around half a trillion dollars.
Al Sharaa is in desperate need of foreign investment, especially after the cessation of Russian-Iranian aid.
While Türkiye and Qatar have an advantage due to their previous ties to the new regime, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have the economic power that can serve as a counterweight.
In fact, shortly after the new regime took control in Syria, senior officials from both sides met and it was reported that Saudi Arabia began supplying oil to Syria instead of Iran.
Qatar agreed to rehabilitate ports damaged by Israel, as well as energy industries.
For their part, the Turks announced they would reconsider an old plan to build a gas pipeline through Syria, connecting Qatar to Turkey and reducing the costs of transporting gas from the Gulf countries to Europe, which is eager to replace its dependence on Russian gas.
The development of these initiatives may influence the regional alignment and policies of the Islamist regime, as well as the regional balance of power.
They may also affect Israel, particularly with regard to a gas pipeline that could compete with Israeli gas exports.
However, like the other plans, these initiatives are far from being realized, depending on the stability of the new Syria.
Source: INSS – The Institute for National Security Studies