Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), a terrorist byproduct of al Qaeda/al Nusra, may have taken control of Damascus and Syria’s major cities, but it is being challenged by other power centres both inside and outside the country. Syria’s regional neighbours, who want a piece of Syrian territory, include its former ally Turkey, the United States, Israel and Iran. Domestic opposition to the new regime includes various small Islamist groups, democratic Kurdish elements and Druze ethnic minorities, as well as Alawite groups from the former Assad regime, mainly in western Syria.
Turkey, one of the main supporters of HTS in its successful overthrow of the Assad dynasty, has occupied parts of northern Syria that border on ethnic Kurdish villages in Syria. In the past, Turkish troops have attacked Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) camps in both Syria and Iraq. The PKK wants independence for Turkey's sizable Kurdish minority or at least autonomy from Ankara. It is unclear how the new Syrian regime in Damascus will ultimately view Turkish incursions into Syrian territory.
Syrian national sovereignty is also threatened by the presence of some 2.000 US soldiers occupying several camps in northeastern Syria, inside the Kurdish zone of the country. These troops protect the remnants of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a pro-US movement, whose forces guard the prisons where thousands of Islamic State (ISIS) prisoners are detained.
Israel also hampers HTS’s control over all of Syria, as the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) now occupy territory beyond the UN-administered buffer zone in the Golan Heights region. Jerusalem is unlikely to withdraw its IDF troops, as they provide Israel with a strategic territorial position some 20 kilometers from the Syrian capital Damascus. Syria’s new leader might have a hard time digesting Israel’s takeover of what was the rest of the Golan Heights, which is still part of Syrian territory, due to its birth precisely in the Golan region.
Iran’s Shia theocratic regime is likely to continue to aid the remnants of pro-Tehran Syrian elements. It was with Iran’s support that the former Assad dictatorship remained in power. Iran views the Sunni HTS regime in Damascus as an enemy. This is especially evident after the new Syrian administration of Abu Muhammad al Jolani, also known as Ahmed Hussein al Sharaa, appointed Sunni extremist Abdul Rahman Fattahi as its liaison with the Islamic Republic. Fattahi fled Iran to Syria in 2014, where he moved to Idlib province, which was the center of fierce Sunni opposition to the Assad regime. In Idlib, Fattahi founded the anti-Iranian “Sunni Emigrants Movement of Iran.” Iranian security forces will closely monitor any attempts by HTS and Fattahi to destabilize Iranian Sunni territories in the Sunni-majority Baluchistan province in eastern Iran.
The internal opposition to the HTS regime in Damascus is made up of ethnic, religious and political minorities. Reports of atrocities against elements of the Syrian population who were either supportive or insufficiently opposed to the former Assad regime are proliferating.
The London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights has reported numerous public killings of Alawite victims. There are also numerous reports of protests by pro-democracy demonstrators. Occasionally, denunciations by members of the anti-Assad coalition who were not members of HTS led to the temporary dismissal of certain regime officials due to their extremist actions. One such incident includes the dismissal of HTS Justice Minister Shahdi al Waisi, who authorized the execution of women for un-Islamic activities. Another example is the temporary dismissal of Anas Khattab, a universally known terrorist who was later reappointed as HTS intelligence chief. There is a strong likelihood that at some point, Syrian Alawite and Christian minorities will seek asylum in Israel or internally in Kurdish-occupied territories within a Balkanized Syria.
Syria’s Kurds, who see Turkey’s critical support for the HTS-dominated government as motivated primarily by Ankara’s animosity toward them, will likely seek autonomy within Syria. They will likely be reluctant to hand over their current control of oil wells in northeastern Syria to the central government.
Syria’s Druze population, concerned by Jolani’s promise to transform the once secular society into one dominated by Sunni Sharia law, has already announced its opposition to HTS control. The Druze-majority territory in southwestern Syria, Suwayda province, has indicated its willingness to declare a sanctuary of autonomy with neighbouring Israel.
The HTS regime could also be challenged by other Islamist extremists, many of whom are of foreign origin. Their entry into Syria was facilitated by Turkey’s deliberate neglect to police its southern border, while these intruders were sent to fight the Assad dynasty. HTS’s military leader, now the regime’s defense minister, Murhaf Abu Qasra, is attempting to integrate these foreign-born terrorists into a new national Syrian Army, in part to control them. These terrorists could become an unexpected and powerful opposition to HTS’s control.
This kaleidoscope of domestic and foreign enemies could serve the plans of some of the regime's foreign adversaries to regain influence, such as Iran, or try to maintain it, such as Turkey. Fortunately, there is still time for the free world to help prevent the new Syria from becoming a formidable terrorist sanctuary.
Source: The Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs