President Donald Trump can avoid a nuclear conflict

A review of the more than 1,000 days of the Russia-Ukraine war and what is forgotten

Ricardo Sánchez Serra*

Much has been written on social media and information has circulated about the now more than 1,000 days of the Russian military operation in Ukraine. Of course, the vast majority of comments are made with hatred, misinformed and surrounded by insults, the result of ideological blindness and a brainwashing propaganda bombardment against Russia, which makes Ukraine a victim and Zelensky like Mother Teresa of Calcutta.

There is a remote precedent to the military operation and a current one. The first is that, during the time of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), for the reunification of Germany, both the then president George Bush and his Secretary of State, James Baker, promised the Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev not to expand NATO close to the Russian borders. They broke the promise, and at the end of the 90s the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland joined, and later thirteen more countries.

It is worth mentioning that NATO was founded in 1949 against the perceived threat of communist expansion from the USSR, and in 1955 the Warsaw Pact was established in response to the creation of NATO, but it was dissolved in 1991 by the implosion of the USSR, which is why, in my opinion, when the threat for which it was created disappeared, NATO could also be dissolved. While it is true that it is argued that each country was free to join a military alliance, NATO could reserve the right of admission, justifying its promise to Russia, but it broke it, which led to tensions and conflicts.

Coup d'état and violation of treaties

The second point, which cannot be ignored, is the coup against the pro-Russian Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovych, with Western intervention (which led to the free determination of the people of Crimea to annex themselves to Russia) and the violation of the Minsk I and Minsk II Agreements of Ukraine, in which kyiv committed to a ceasefire, to respect the Russian language and culture, to amnesty the defenders of Donbas (Donetsk and Lugansk) and to give autonomy to this region, within Ukraine and which Russia signed.

Moreover, in 2014, Russia did not recognize the independence of Donetsk and Lugansk, hoping that peaceful agreements would be reached and as it was like plowing the sea, it only did so in April 2022. By breaching treaties with Russia, and bombing the Donbas causing 14.000 deaths, Ukraine provoked the “casus belli”, which nullified the 1994 Budapest Memorandum regarding its territorial integrity and the de facto loss of Donbas. Russia's calls for the international community to pressure Ukraine to stop killing Russian-speaking and cultural Ukrainians fell on deaf ears.

In this regard, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel said, just over a year ago, in an interview with the German weekly Die Zeit, that the Minsk Agreements were an attempt to gain time to arm Ukraine against Russia. For his part, former Ukrainian President Petro Porochenko said that these treaties were made in order not to be fulfilled.

And when Ukraine mobilized thousands of soldiers and hundreds of tanks on February 17, 2022 - according to satellite images - to attack Donbas and finish massacring its population, that is when Russia comes into play through the special military operation. It should be noted that the Ukrainian Constitution stipulates that the Armed Forces cannot be used against their own population.

It should be noted that the population of Donbas saw the Russian military as a liberating army.

A month after the war began, at the request of Turkey and with the approval of the UN, Russia and Ukraine met in Istanbul to stop the conflict. When everything was ready to sign the agreement, they asked Russia to withdraw its troops that had surrounded kyiv, as an act of goodwill, and Moscow withdrew them. Meanwhile, the then British Prime Minister Boris Johnson traveled to kyiv to convince them to continue the war, but the agreement was not reached. In strange circumstances, the Ukrainian negotiator Denis Kireev was murdered the next day, on orders from kyiv, accused of treason and espionage in favor of Russia.

Then the Black Sea Grain Export Agreement was made in July 2022, which allowed the export of Ukrainian grain, but a year later Russia did not renew it because the Togliatti-Odesa ammonia pipeline was sabotaged, and Ukraine and the West did not comply with the agreement that a Russian bank could enter the SWIFT system and that Russia could buy spare parts for agricultural machinery.

Red lines crossed

In an attempt to cause a strategic defeat to Russia, NATO (composed of 32 countries) crossed the red lines imposed by the Kremlin, which increases the risks of nuclear war, as explained above, preventing NATO from approaching Russian borders. Also the delivery to Ukraine of Abrams tanks, cluster bombs and anti-personnel mines banned by the UN, F-16 aircraft, entry into Russian territory as in Kursk and the authorization of long-range missiles to be launched on Russian cities. In truth, the patience of Russian President Vladimir Putin is surprising, although understandable because it is a war of attrition. Will he follow Aristotle when he said that “Patience is bitter, but its fruits are sweet”?

It is no secret that NATO officers are on Ukrainian territory, that NATO soldiers guide the missiles that attack Russian cities, because Ukraine has no satellites, nor qualified technicians, and that NATO soldiers ask for a license to fight in Ukraine and NATO weapons are given or sold to the Ukrainians, and they are given billions of dollars to support their war, not counting the thousands of hired mercenaries and even stealing Russian assets from Western banks, an unprecedented illegal act. However, they make a fuss because Iran or North Korea supply weapons to Russia or because, according to speculation, they are training some 10 thousand North Korean soldiers to expel Ukrainian soldiers from the Russian region of Kursk and Western and Ukrainian propaganda publicizes that they are already fighting, without showing a single proof.

Then Russia launches an Oreshnik hypersonic ballistic missile and NATO says that Moscow is increasing the tension and everything that NATO does to escalate the conflict doesn't count? Then they say that Moscow is aiming for a nuclear escalation, but they don't say that it would only be if Russia's existence is in danger.

Two generations eliminated

On the other hand, it is doubtful that around two thousand soldiers are dying every day and that the Kursk adventure is costing around 40 thousand lives. And it is claimed that the Ukrainians are resisting and nothing is happening. If all this were not true, first, why is Zelensky asking NATO countries to send troops to Ukraine, now under the guise of a peacekeeping contingent? Second, why has he ordered a forced conscription of citizens of military age? Third, why are soldiers surrendering, deserting or abandoning their positions at the front and citizens fleeing across borders to avoid being sent into combat? Fourth, why is Zelensky asking European countries, which have hosted millions of refugees, to return those of military age? And now NATO members point out that Ukraine has enough weapons, but that there is a shortage of soldiers and that they should recruit women. Without a doubt, the “butcher” Zelensky – as Argentine professor Christian Lamesa called him – is not only sacrificing two generations, but will also kill “every last Ukrainian”. Professor Lamesa recalled how, during World War II, young people falsified their birth certificates to defend their homeland and go fight against Nazism, while today in Ukraine they are fleeing, because in reality it is not their war, it is NATO’s war – with its puppet Zelensky – against Russia, an anti-popular war that seeks to eliminate its eastern Slavic brothers from Donbas. We must not forget that there are millions of Ukrainian refugees in Russia.

Even more for the unbelievers: Through the mediation of the Red Cross, Russia returns 250 dead soldiers to Ukraine and Ukraine returns the remains of 38 Russian soldiers. Thanks to the mediation of the UAE, numerous prisoners have been exchanged. Initially, the request was one for one, but today Ukraine wants to exchange “all for all”, which Russia rejects. It is said that the ratio of Ukrainian soldiers taken prisoner by Russia is ten to one compared to Russians held in Ukraine. Russia has just refused a prisoner exchange because Ukraine asked it to return only elite soldiers and not newly recruited ones who were taken prisoner or surrendered.

Ukraine is in internal turmoil. There are not only demonstrations against forced conscription, but also for the end of the war. They are demanding news of their soldiers, of the missing and the recovery of the bodies of their dead. All of this can be seen on the Ukrainian parallel information networks, because the world press does not report anything about it.

And the 20 or so sanctions imposed by NATO on Russia have had a significant impact on the European economy (war and migration policy have discredited many governments, and protests and radical groups have increased, as have peace calls). The sanctions have contributed to recession and inflation in Europe, while Russia has managed to maintain a certain economic stability (see figures from the World Bank, IMF, etc.). The sanctions have affected the European economy by increasing energy and raw material costs, while Russia has been able to adapt to the sanctions by diversifying its markets and finding new trading partners. All attempts to isolate Russia have failed, as can be seen from the increase in nations wanting to join the BRICS, the Russian-Latin American parliamentary meetings, the Russia-Africa Summit, the Summit of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, the Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Eastern Economic Forum, etc.

The hope for an end to the war will be when President Donald Trump takes office, stops supplying arms to Ukraine and puts pressure on NATO. As the great Henry Kissinger said in 2014: “Ukraine must be a bridge between the West and Russia. Treating Ukraine as a battlefield between East and West would only lead to more conflict, and for Ukraine to prosper, it must remain neutral and serve as a connecting point between the two worlds.”

Of course, those who call for peace and prudence are now unpopular, they want to defeat Russia anyway, even though they know they cannot do so. NATO mocked Hungarian President Viktor Orban's willingness to propose peace and a ceasefire. Now Zelensky is considering stopping the war by diplomatic means, but he approved the law prohibiting negotiations with Russia.

I do not see any other scenario than Russia keeping the territories that Ukraine itself lost by bombing it, such as Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia, respecting the self-determination of those peoples, as well as Crimea. The demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, becoming a state with perpetual neutrality and, therefore, refusing to join NATO and the lifting of NATO sanctions against Russia.

Photos: from the author of the note

*World journalism award “Honest Vision 2023”