Israel on alert: Release of kidnapped women and Trump's warnings amid rising tensions

Israel is in a state of extreme tension as it prepares for the release of four women kidnapped by Hamas, scheduled for Saturday, as part of the first phase of a hostage deal. The terrorist organization is due to hand over a list of those to be released today, but uncertainties remain over whether the procedures will be followed.

Release under negotiation

Under the agreement, Hamas is required to submit the names of the hostages through intermediaries in Qatar, although in the past it has chosen to publish them directly in the media. The expectation in Israel is that the list will include Arbel Yehud, a civilian, along with three kidnapped female observers. However, Israeli authorities are preparing for possible crises, anticipating that Hamas could employ psychological tactics to generate pressure.

If this stage is completed, Israel will release 180 Palestinian prisoners, including 90 sentenced to life imprisonment, in an exchange that follows a strict pre-agreed ratio: 30 prisoners for each civilian freed and 50 for each kidnapped soldier.

A critical point in the agreement

In addition to the releases scheduled for tomorrow, Hamas must provide a list detailing the status of the 33 hostages involved in this first phase: alive or dead. According to Israeli estimates, of the 26 hostages not yet released, 18 are believed to be alive and eight have died in captivity.

The agreement also includes a timetable for the return of the victims' bodies, which will extend to the fifth and sixth weeks of negotiations.

Military withdrawal and return of displaced persons

Another crucial element to be implemented tomorrow is the beginning of a gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Netzarim axis, which divides the Gaza Strip. This withdrawal will allow the return of thousands of displaced Palestinians to the north of the Strip.

Vehicle movement monitoring will be carried out by a private US company in collaboration with an Egyptian firm, with no controls on pedestrians.

Trump warns and pushes for the continuity of the agreement

US President Donald Trump has weighed in on the negotiations, stressing the importance of maintaining the deal. In a recent statement, Trump said: “The deal must be maintained, but if not, there will be a lot of problems.” However, he also acknowledged the complexities of the negotiations and the possibility that deadlines might not be met.

Sources close to the negotiations say Trump plans to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to agree to move toward a second phase of the deal. This could include incentives such as normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia and progress on issues related to Iran.

An uncertain future

The first phase of the deal is set to last 42 days, and the second phase, which would include the release of the remaining hostages, would depend on new negotiations scheduled to begin on February 4. However, Hamas has made this stage conditional on a complete cessation of the war and the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, something Israel views as unacceptable without the dismantling of Hamas and the exile of its leaders.

The agreement allows for negotiations and the temporary ceasefire to be extended beyond the first phase, potentially avoiding a definitive breakup. However, the risks of the pact collapsing remain high, with all parties facing internal and external pressure.

This complex scenario not only tests the ability of international mediators to ensure progress, but also the resilience of Israel and Hamas in the face of a fragile truce that could break at any moment.