From a “humiliation” for Hezbollah to a possible all-out war, according to Israeli analysts

Few analysts dare to draw conclusions after the explosions of thousands of pagers associated with Hezbollah, in an attack attributed to Israel, but they do not hesitate to describe it as a "humiliation" for the Shiite terrorist group, which could be the prelude to an open war.

"It is difficult to predict whether this will be a precursor to a full-scale Israeli offensive, but what is clear is that this operation revealed how exposed Hezbollah is to Israeli intelligence," said Orna Mizrachi, a researcher at the Tel Aviv Institute for National Security Studies, in a meeting with journalists.

For his part, expert Eyal Pinko, from the Begin Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar Ilan University, believes that Israel was seeking to send a warning message to the Lebanese terrorist militia, which in recent days had again increased the launching of rockets and drones against northern Israel.

"We have normalized the arrival (daily) of 30 or 40 projectiles from Hezbollah over the past few months, but Israel has not gone any further. I think what it wanted to make clear is that it has power over them, that it knows who they are, what they do and that, in a matter of seconds, it could do them a lot of damage," the analyst said at a press conference.

The explosions have already caused twelve deaths and almost 3.000 wounded who have been treated in around XNUMX hospitals, confirmed the Lebanese Minister of Public Health, Firas Abiad.

"The attack has also succeeded in collapsing the Lebanese health system, which was already precarious, and leaves it in an even worse situation in the event of a war breaking out.", Mizrachi said.

Two possible scenarios

What will happen after this blow is the big question. Mizrachi predicts two possible scenarios: a retaliatory response from Hezbollah, or Israel taking the initiative and launching a large-scale offensive.

Avi Melamed, an analyst and former Israeli intelligence officer, shared a similar view. In an interview, he stressed that it was "humiliating" for the Lebanese group to be exposed in this way, which could force it to act "in a much larger way and on a much larger scale."

The Shiites, who had already attributed the incident to an Israeli attack, warned last night that the country would receive "its just punishment."

Israel, for its part, has deployed more troops to its northern border, including the 98th Army Division, which was withdrawn from the Gaza Strip, according to a military statement.

An attack launched prematurely?

The main hypothesis circulating in the media is that the spectacular Israeli operation was released ahead of time, for fear that the Lebanese group had discovered that the pagers had been rigged with explosive charges.

According to Melamed, this suggests that the attack was designed to destabilize Hezbollah as first step in the event of an open war with the group, something that is becoming more and more plausible as the intense exchange of fire across the border continues, which for eleven months has forced thousands of Israelis to live as displaced persons, in hotels or with relatives.

The expert said the ball was now in the Lebanese group's court, and hinted that he did not think Israeli authorities had a clear strategy for the conflict on the border with Lebanon, beyond their stated goal of returning residents to their homes.

In this regard, Mizrachi recalled that the pressure on the Government of Benjamin Netanyahu to start an all-out war against Hezbollah is growing among some sectors of Israeli society, after almost a year in which some 60.000 people remain evacuated.

"From my point of view, I see the inevitable outbreak of a total war because the truce agreement in Gaza, which is always the condition that Hezbollah sets for ceasing its attacks against northern Israel, is considered impossible," he added.

Efe's Núria Garrido and Jorge Dastis contributed to this Aurora article.