Tue Feb 18th, 2025

Five years after Soleimani's elimination: implications for the Middle East

Qassem Soleimani Photo: Mohammad Ranjbar Tasnim News Agency CC BY 4.0 via Wikimedia Commons

By Danny Citrinowitz

Five years have passed since the death of Qassem Soleimani, commander of Iran’s Quds Force, in a US strike, making it an appropriate time for a brief analysis of the consequences of his elimination, which continue to shake the Middle East:

1. The collapse of the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance” seen over the past year can be traced back to the elimination of Soleimani. Its significance is evident when examining the current state of the Axis.

2. While it is often argued that every eliminated leader has a replacement and only a few assassinations have a long-term impact, the elimination of Soleimani falls into the latter category. President Trump’s decision fundamentally transformed the Middle East as a whole and specifically weakened Iran’s regional influence.

3. One thing is clear: no one has been able to fill Soleimani's shoes. His successor, Qaani, failed to maintain control over the proxies [proxies] of Iran in the region, forcing Nasrallah to take a greater leadership role in managing the proxies, which may have weakened Hezbollah itself.

4. It is highly unlikely that Sinwar would have launched the October 7 attack without Soleimani’s knowledge and involvement. Soleimani would certainly have prepared the Axis for such an operation. The Axis’ surprise following the Hamas attack led to a confused and uncoordinated strategy, which failed to capitalize on Hamas’ operational success.

5. While Soleimani was alive, the proxies Iran’s militants operated with limited independence (certainly the Houthis, Iraqi militias, and even Hezbollah). With his death (and with the elimination of Abu Mahdi al Muhandis), the connection between Hezbollah and Iran was significantly damaged, especially in terms of Nasrallah’s ability to consult with Soleimani and better understand the mindset of the Iranian leadership.

6. Iran lost its top Middle East expert precisely when it needed him most. Tehran continues to pay the price for his disappearance and its poor understanding of regional dynamics in general and Israel in particular. This has been reflected in a series of mistakes that have deepened Iran's strategic distress. This distress is also the result of decisions taken by Iran's proxies Iranians without coordination with Tehran.

7. The collapse of the Assad regime is another consequence of Soleimani’s elimination. Soleimani was the only figure capable of coordinating efforts between Russia, Hezbollah and the various Shiite militias to save Assad. While it is difficult to determine what might have happened had Soleimani been alive, it is clear today that no one could replace his ability to synchronize the Syrian regime’s defense efforts.

8. Iran will struggle to rebuild Hezbollah’s capabilities without Soleimani. His leadership after the Second Lebanon War transformed Hezbollah from a terrorist organization into a military force. Without Soleimani, without Nasrallah, and certainly with the loss of Syria to the Axis, rebuilding will be much more difficult.

The bottom line is that Soleimani’s strength and dominance in shaping, managing and coordinating the Axis with Hezbollah and Nasrallah became a liability after his removal, as no one could take his place. The fragmentation of the Axis and the rise of independent actors have weakened control of Iran and caused complications for that country.

During periods of relative calm, the consequences of Soleimani’s elimination could be hidden, but once war broke out, his absence was deeply felt, affecting Iran’s coordination, communication and understanding of regional dynamics.

Source: INSS – The Institute for National Security Studies

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