The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime and the rise to power of Islamist and rebel forces in Syria has reshaped the country's reality and created a new scenario for countries in the region and the international community.
TURKEY
Türkiye is on the winning side of the Syrian conflict, since the main shock force that has triggered the fall of Al Assad are the Islamist militias Haiat Tahrir Sham (HTS), which in recent years dominated the Idlib province in the northwest of the country, under Turkish military tutelage.
While it is unclear to what extent HTS will continue to heed the advice of its protectors once it is part of the power structures in Damascus, Ankara's influence, especially in the north of the country, will be crucial, not least because of its economic power.
The puzzle for Türkiye now is how to end the dominance of the Syrian Kurdish militias in the northeast of the country, hitherto backed by the United States, without risking a new civil war that would disrupt a transition that Türkiye wants.
RUSSIA
Russia, the great defender of the Syrian regime alongside Iran, has demonstrated its inability to fight on two fronts at the same timeThe current Russian offensive in Donbass requires huge investments in money, men and weapons. That is why Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin has had to sacrifice al-Assad.
The biggest risk for Russia, however, is not so much the fall of the regime as the loss of its military bases in the Arab country. The Kremlin said on Monday it was willing to sit down and negotiate the future of these facilities with the new authorities.
At stake is nothing less than the presence of the Russian Navy in the Mediterranean Sea, since the Treaty of Montreux prevents Russian ships from passing through the Bosphorus to their bases in the Black Sea.
IRAN
The fall of Bashar al Assad It is a blow to Iran and its 'Axis of Resistance' Shiite, the anti-Israeli alliance that has allowed it to extend its influence in the Middle East through allies such as Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and Iraqi militias.
Assad's Syria, a member of the Shiite Alawite sect, was an important part of this informal alliance, especially since it gave Iran direct access to Hezbollah in Lebanon for the supply of arms and materiel.
The fall of the Syrian president, coupled with the blows suffered by Hamas and Hezbollah, weakens Tehran and reduces its influence in the region just months before Donald Trump returns to the White House with the threat of toughening US policies towards the Persian country.
LEBANON
For Lebanon, the fall of the regime is bittersweet. While The Lebanese government sees an opportunity for millions of Syrian refugees on its territory to return to their countryFor the Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah, forced to withdraw from Syria, it is a different story.
Hezbollah terrorists - backed by Tehran - helped the Syrian regime to suppress the opposition and to finish off the insurgents, especially in the fight for Aleppo (2012-2016), but now, with its ranks weakened, its leadership decapitated and its historic leader, Hassan Nasrallah, eliminated during the Israeli escalation that began in Lebanon on September 23, Hezbollah has been relegated to the background in Syria's current history.
USA
For the United States, The fall of the regime represents an objective achieved, which he has attributed to his strategy of unwavering support for Ukraine and Israel, something that in the long run has weakened, according to President Joe Biden on Sunday, Iran and Russia, allies of the ousted Syrian government.
At the same time, the fragmentation of the Syrian scenario is a challenge for Washington, which is in the midst of a transition process to hand over power to the isolationist government of Donald Trump, which has promised not to intervene in Syria.
Washington's main objective is to prevent the resurgence of jihadist groups and the Lebanonization of Syria.
Despite considering it a terrorist group, Washington has remained cautious with the leader of the Levant Liberation Organization (Hayat Tahrir al Sham or HTS, in Arabic), Abu Mohamed al Jolani, the strongman of this successful rebel offensive.
GULF
For the Gulf countries, the announcement by the insurgents that they were liberating Damascus was a shared joy and was used to rant against the regime, despite having agreed to return to the Arab League last year.
In a highly unusual tone, the Saudi Foreign Ministry said in a statement that the years of war with Al Assad in charge “have claimed the lives of hundreds of thousands of innocent people and millions of displaced people and refugees, and during which foreign militias have ravaged Syria to impose foreign agendas on the Syrian people.”
As for Qatar, which has been a supporter of the Syrian opposition alongside Turkey, its speech has been somewhat more diplomatic and asking all parties to “choose dialogue in order to stop the bloodshed of the people and to preserve the national institutions of the State and guarantee a better future for the Syrian people.”
Jordan and Iraq, two countries bordering Syria, are concerned about this new situation that could plunge Syria into chaos.
A possible expansion of the jihadist group Islamic State (which already in 2014 took advantage of the power vacuum in Syria to occupy large territories) and drug trafficking on its borders are two issues that concern them, which has forced them to reinforce their divisions in order not to repeat scenarios that they already believed had ended.
ISRAEL
Israel has celebrated the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, a country with which it never established diplomatic relations, as a victory, since it represents a setback for its main supporter, Iran, the Hebrew state's arch-enemy.
But the arrival of Syrian insurgents, most of them Islamists, is generating both optimism and concern. There is fear about who will have power in Syria and above all, what will be its position towards Israel and the Palestinian conflict, since it could open a new hot front that would join Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.
The country's first reaction has been to show strength on the border by invading the demilitarized border zone in the Golan Heights and attacking weapons depots, including chemical weapons, and other military targets of the regime “to prevent them from falling into the wrong hands.”
However, some analysts point to the opportunity that the arrival of the Syrian insurgents to power represents for relations between Israel and Turkey, which are going through one of their worst moments (Erdogan cut trade relations in May).
Establishing a positive relationship with the new Syrian authorities could pave the way for reconciliation between the two countries.
Agencies contributed to this Aurora article.
Among all the comments, something funny but true: “Lebanonization” = European League teams with players from every “nation-tribe-language-color” = Babel of the last days = troubled waters: everyone going fishing… thank goodness there are no LGBTI or the perverse feminine movement… identities would be lost. Therefore, ISRAEL is unique, like the “remnants” Rev 3:16; Ezek 3:7; John 10:16 (let him who reads understand). Greetings.