The imminent arrival of Donald Trump to the White House, the recent victories and electoral successes of pro-Russian candidates in several Eastern European countries, the stagnation of the battle fronts, although Russian territorial advances are notable, and the failure of the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk create a truly adverse picture for Ukraine.
by Ricardo Angoso
On January 2025, 24, the day of the inauguration of the new President of the United States, Donald Trump, a new stage in the war in Ukraine begins, since the new president has already announced that he will resolve this conflict within “XNUMX hours.”
Many are wondering what a Trumpian peace will look like, given Trump's closeness to Russia's top leader Vladimir Putin and the new president's lack of sympathy for the Ukrainian cause. Surely, given the current situation on the fronts and the scant Ukrainian progress in recent months, Ukraine would have to make territorial concessions to Russia in exchange for an unjust peace and could lose Crimea and the four regions annexed by Putin in October 2022: Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia. In total, if this peace is imposed by force, Ukraine would lose approximately 20% of its territories. Perhaps forever.
Putin, based on the experience we have had since the Transnistrian crisis - which was conveniently activated and fuelled by Moscow to destabilise fragile Moldova - the annihilation of Chechnya by applying the scorched earth policy against Chechen nationalism, the almost definitive Russian annexation of the territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia and the handover of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan, to punish Armenia for its flirtations with NATO and the European Union, never hands over the territories occupied by his army.
Moreover, with Trump in the White House, a weakened EU divided over whether to continue military and economic aid to Ukraine, and growing international support for Russia, but especially from China, Iran, Turkey – which turns a blind eye to Western sanctions against Moscow – and India, Putin’s situation is not as desperate as some Western media would have us believe, and Russia has the military, economic and demographic capacity and potential to endure this war for many years, while Ukraine is finding it increasingly difficult to recruit new forces, its economy is exhausted and international support, if the United States withdraws its economic support – which is absolutely feasible – will be seriously damaged in the coming months. Ukraine may have already lost the war, although many of its leaders and citizens do not know it.
Apart from these considerations, which are already a serious setback for the Ukrainian cause, things are changing very quickly within the EU and since 2022, when Russia attacked Ukraine, there has been a perceptible change in public opinion regarding this war. France and Germany continue to entertain the idea of a political and diplomatic solution to the conflict, even negotiating secretly with Moscow, while in other countries, such as Hungary, the Netherlands, Slovakia, Romania and the former Soviet republic of Moldova - which is not a member of the community club but has requested to join - pro-Russian parties are gaining ground.
RUSSIA AND ITS TENTACLES IN EASTERN EUROPE AND THE CAUCASUS
Russia’s main partner on the European stage is Victor Orbán’s Hungary, which is opposed to continuing to support Ukraine in this war and blocks aid to this country within the EU, constituting a sort of Russian fifth column in political Europe with the help of its partners and parties that follow its pro-Russian anti-European line, such as Vox in Spain, Salvini’s Lega in Italy, the FPO in Austria and the National Rally in France, to give just a few examples. But other countries, such as Slovakia and the Netherlands, also have ultra-right parties in their executives that support this anti-European line favourable to the interests of the Kremlin on the continent. The enemy was at home and we did not know it.
The tight result of the presidential elections in Moldova, in which the pro-European president Maia Sandu won by a narrow margin against the pro-Russian candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo, revealed the constant interference of Moscow, via social networks, fake news, financial support and hoaxes, in the political life of almost all of Eastern and Western Europe. Stoianoglo, a shameless agent of Russia who destabilizes the country by promoting the independence of the Gauzgazia region, who always had more sympathy for the Russians than for the Moldovans, would never have made it to the second round of the elections, garnering almost 45% of the votes, without Moscow's help. If elected, it would have been a disaster for the country and for Europe, which already considers Moldova a priority country and an ally.
More worrying is that a pro-Russian candidate and leader of one of the far-right parties in Romania, Calin Georgescu, has positioned himself against all odds as the winner of the Romanian presidential elections and almost the favourite for the second round, if some higher authority in this country, such as the Constitutional Court, does not annul the results and proceed to hold another first round in the face of the accumulation of irregularities detected, such as disinformation campaigns, fake news and possible irregular use of funds, probably from Russia. The pro-Russian candidate also massively used the Chinese network Tik Tok to campaign through social networks, discrediting Europe and, incidentally, the rest of the candidates to sow a climate of discord and insecurity that clearly favored him. If Georgescu were elected, the Kremlin would place a Russian agent at the head of Romania and would have a faithful ally within NATO, another fifth column, on the very border of Ukraine.
But Putin's hand is long, as shown by the recent results of the general elections in Georgia, in the post-Soviet periphery of Russia, where the pro-Russian and anti-European Georgian Dream party won resoundingly over the rest of the political forces competing in those elections. Although the result has been questioned by the opposition due to certain irregularities during the electoral process and some Georgian institutions also question the result, Georgian Dream is already governing in this country and has announced that negotiations with the EU are suspended for now. indefinitely, despite mass protests on the streets of Georgia and brutal repression by the authorities. Russia adds another piece to its list of unconditional allies in its war against Ukraine, while Europe loses an ally in the Caucasus.
Russia has understood that to win the war against Ukraine, not only military forces are needed, but it is very important to undermine Western support for the invaded and attacked country, since without this Western support, Ukraine is doomed to failure and defeat. Russia, through its disinformation campaigns, shameless pro-Russian propaganda, the construction of hoaxes and fake news and support for the most Moscow-based far right, may have achieved this goal of distancing Europe from Ukraine, as Putin wanted. The only objective in this hybrid war of Putin against Europe is to divide it from within, to create problems in its institutions, such as those generated by Hungary by obstructing European funds to a Ukraine that urgently needs them, to weaken it, prevent it from acting politically and militarily against the Russian threat and paralyze it, as it is doing now. Paradoxically, in this hybrid war against Europe, Russia supports all kinds of political movements, converging in this great alliance in favor of Putin parties and organizations of the extreme right, radical left and separatist groups. As has always been said, politics makes strange bedfellows.
There should be no illusions about Trump. The evidence of this is the number of cowboys he is appointing to his administration. The feeling is that those cowboy hats are not covering brains but pumpkins. I hope I am wrong.