As Syrian rebels advance towards Homs, Bashar al-Assad's Arab allies urged him to leave the country

The offensive led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has exposed the weakness of the Alawite regime, whose response seems increasingly insufficient in the face of the rapid loss of territory.

The civil war in Syria has taken a decisive turn with the lightning offensive of the rebels, who have managed to take several key cities in quick succession, which has put the regime of Bashar al-Assad after more than a decade of conflict. With Hama y Aleppo already under rebel control, attention now turns to the battle for Homs, the last major city under government control on the route connecting areas loyal to the regime with the capital, Damascus.

The rebel advance, led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group, has exposed the growing weaknesses of the al-Assad regime, whose response seems increasingly insufficient in the face of the rapid loss of territoryThe fall of Homs, which has about 800.000 inhabitants, could mean the total collapse of the regime, according to the analysis of experts such as Jerome Drevon of the International Crisis Group, who warned The Wall Street Journal that “If Homs falls, I don’t see how the regime can survive.”

As government forces regroup and bombard areas north of Homs, seeking to halt the rebel advance, Al-Assad remains in Syria, albeit with signs of weakening. According to Syrian security sources and Arab officials, His wife and children traveled to RussiaWhile His brothers-in-law moved to the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Several Arab leaders, including officials from Egypt and Jordan, have urged al-Assad to leave the country and form a government in exile., in an attempt to prevent further destabilization in the region.

The battle for Homs and the international response

The situation in Homs is critical. The city represents a strategic node both for the regime and its international allies, Russia and Iran, who have been key pillars in keeping al-Assad in power since 2015. The loss of the city would not only cut off the land route to Lebanon, a key point for Iranian and Hezbollah forces, but could also isolate the regime from its military bases on the Mediterranean coast.

Al-Assad's future is more uncertain than ever. International pressure on his continued rule is mounting, with Arab leaders such as those in the UAE and Qatar expressing concern about the regime's imminent collapse. These nations have shown support for a change of government in Syria, reflecting growing distrust of al-Assad's continued leadership.

Despite the regime’s attempts to mobilize reinforcements and reorganize, desertions within the army ranks have increased, further demoralizing loyalist forces. Adding to this is the growing influence of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which have managed to expand their control in the east of the country, occupying key cities such as Deir Ezzour and other areas vacated by government forces.

The response of external actors

Russia e Iran, who were crucial to al-Assad's survival during the most critical moments of the war, now face a difficult dilemma. Both countries have been drawn into other regional conflicts, limiting their ability to intervene with the same intensity as in the past. Rim Turkmani, director of the Syria Conflict Research Program at the London School of Economics, told The Wall Street Journal: “There are major questions about the regime’s two pillars of support: its loyal base and external support from Russia and Iran.”

In response to mounting internal and external pressure, al-Assad has requested military assistance from Turkey to curb the rebels, and has sought support in terms of weapons and intelligence services from countries such as Egypt, Jordan, Iraq and the UAE, although it has so far been rejected.

The impact on the civilian population and the collapse of the regime

The rebel advance has had a profound impact on the civilian population. As regime troops retreat, thousands of civilians have fled Homs for fear of reprisals. According to reports from activists and experts in the region, The ranks of the Syrian army are looking increasingly demoralized, with hundreds of soldiers deserting or joining the rebels.

Meanwhile The leadership of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham makes no secret of its ambitions to overthrow the regime. In a recent interview, its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, said that his goal is to “finish off the regime” and that “all the seeds of the regime’s defeat have always been within it.”

Regime authorities are trying to show resistance, and officials in Damascus say they have reinforced their positions in Homs to protect the city, despite mounting pressure. The intervention of international actors, such as Israel, which recently attacked two border crossings between Lebanon and Syria to cut off weapons smuggling routes to Hezbollah, underscores the complexity of the conflict and the regional tensions that continue to influence Syria’s future.

The future of the Bashar al-Assad regime remains uncertain as rebels advance and the international community weighs its response to the growing threat of imminent collapse.

Source: INFOBAE